Worldwide Incidence of Malaria in 2009: Estimates, Time Trends, and a Critique of Methods
Background:
Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009.
Methods and Findings:
We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th–95th centiles, 146–316 million) worldwide, 176 (110–248) million in the African region, and 49 (36–68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries.
Conclusions:
Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance.
: Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Vyšlo v časopise:
Worldwide Incidence of Malaria in 2009: Estimates, Time Trends, and a Critique of Methods. PLoS Med 8(12): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001142
Kategorie:
Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001142
Souhrn
Background:
Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009.
Methods and Findings:
We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th–95th centiles, 146–316 million) worldwide, 176 (110–248) million in the African region, and 49 (36–68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries.
Conclusions:
Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance.
: Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Zdroje
1. World Health Organization 2010 World Malaria Report Geneva World Health Organization
2. CraigMHSnowRWle SueurD 1999 A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today 15 105 111
3. SnowRWCraigMHNewtonCRJCSteketeeRW 2003 The public health burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa: deriving the numbers. Working paper 11, Disease Control Priorities Project. Bethesda, Maryland: Fogarty International Centre, National Institutes of Health
4. HaySIOkiroEAGethingPWPatilAPTatemAJ 2010 Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007. PLoS Med 7 e1000290 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000290
5. SnowRWGuerraCANoorAMMyintHYHaySI 2005 The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Nature 434 214 217
6. GuerraCAGikandiPWTatemAJNoorAMSmithDL 2008 The limits and intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: implications for malaria control and elimination worldwide. PLoS Medicine 5 e38 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050038
7. HaySIGuerraCAGethingPWPatilAPTatemAJ 2009 A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007. PLoS Medicine 6 e1000048 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000048
8. PatilAPOkiroEAGethingPWGuerraCASharmaSK 2009 Defining the relationship between Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical disease: statistical models for disease burden estimation. Malaria J 8 186
9. MurphySCBremanJG 2001 Gaps in the childhood malaria burden in Africa: cerebral malaria, neurological sequelae, anemia, respiratory distress, hypoglycemia, and complications of pregnancy. Am J Trop Med Hyg 64 57 67
10. United Nations Population Division 2009 World population prospects: the 2008 revision New York City United Nations
11. KorenrompEL 2005 Malaria incidence estimates at country level for the year 2004 - proposed estimates and draft report Geneva World Health Organization
12. PriceRNTjitraEGuerraCAYeungSWhiteNJ 2007 Vivax malaria: neglected and not benign. Am J Trop Med Hyg 77 79 87
13. HaySIGuerraCATatemAJNoorAMSnowRW 2004 The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present and future. Lancet Infect Dis 4 327 336
14. World Health Organization 2012 Disease surveillance for malaria control Geneva World Health Organization (In press)
15. World health Organization 2012 Disease surveillance for malaria elimination Geneva World health Organization (In press)
16. CibulskisREBellDChristophelEHiiJDelacolletteC 2007 Estimating trends in the burden of malaria at country level. Am J Trop Med Hyg 77 suppl 6 133 137
17. Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group (MAP-SEEG) 2011 Malaria atlas project Oxford Oxford Univerrsity
18. HaySIOkiroEAGethingPWPatilAPTatemAJ 2010 Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007. PLoS Med 7 e1000290 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000290
19. MeyrowitschDWPedersenEMAlifrangisMScheikeTHMalecelaMN 2011 Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population? Malaria J 10 188
20. O'MearaWPMangeniJNSteketeeRGreenwoodB 2010 Changes in the burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Lancet Infect Dis 10 545 555
21. CarneiroIRoca-FeltrerASchellenbergJ 2005 Estimates of the burden of malaria morbidity in Africa in children under the age of five years. Child Health Epidemiology Reference Working Paper London London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Štítky
Interné lekárstvoČlánok vyšiel v časopise
PLOS Medicine
2011 Číslo 12
- Statinová intolerance
- Očkování proti virové hemoragické horečce Ebola experimentální vakcínou rVSVDG-ZEBOV-GP
- Co dělat při intoleranci statinů?
- Pleiotropní účinky statinů na kardiovaskulární systém
- DESATORO PRE PRAX: Aktuálne odporúčanie ESPEN pre nutričný manažment u pacientov s COVID-19
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
- Violent Crime, Epilepsy, and Traumatic Brain Injury
- Rotating Night Shift Work and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Women
- Surgery Versus Epilation for the Treatment of Minor Trichiasis in Ethiopia: A Randomised Controlled Noninferiority Trial
- Worldwide Incidence of Malaria in 2009: Estimates, Time Trends, and a Critique of Methods