Population-level impact of an accelerated HIV response plan to reach the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in Côte d’Ivoire: Insights from mathematical modeling

English version České info

Mathieu Maheu-Giroux and colleagues model several potential scenarios for reaching HIV prevention targets in Côte d'Ivoire and estimate the fraction of new infections prevented and changes incidence from 2015–2030.

Vyšlo v časopise: Population-level impact of an accelerated HIV response plan to reach the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in Côte d’Ivoire: Insights from mathematical modeling. PLoS Med 14(6): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002321
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002321

Souhrn

Zdroje

1. GBD 2015 HIV Collaborators. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet HIV. 2016;3(8):e361–e87. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30087-X 27470028

2. Maheu-Giroux M, Vesga JF, Diabate S, Alary M, Boily MC. Modeling the HIV Epidemic in Cote d'Ivoire: Impact of Past Interventions. Aids Res Hum Retrovir. 2016;32:300-.

3. Diabaté S, Maheu-Giroux M, Vesga J, Boily M, Alary M. Plan d'accélération de la réponse nationale au VIH en Côte d'Ivoire: Rapport présenté à ONUSIDA—Région d'Afrique de l'ouest et du centre; 2015. 139 p.

4. UNAIDS. 90-90-90: an ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic. Geneva, Switzerland: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), 2014 Contract No.: JC2684.

5. UNAIDS. Fast-Track: ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030. Geneva, Switzerland: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), 2014 Contract No.: JC2686.

6. Gaolathe T, Wirth KE, Holme MP, Makhema J, Moyo S, Chakalisa U, et al. Botswana's progress toward achieving the 2020 UNAIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy and virological suppression goals: a population-based survey. Lancet HIV. 2016;3(5):e221–30. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(16)00037-0 27126489.

7. Mishra S, Mountain E, Pickles M, Vickerman P, Shastri S, Gilks C, et al. Exploring the population-level impact of antiretroviral treatment: the influence of baseline intervention context. AIDS. 2014;28 Suppl 1:S61–72. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000109 24468948.

8. INS, ICF International. Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples de Côte d'Ivoire 2011–2012. Calverton, MD: Institut National de la Statistique et ICF International, 2012.

9. Schwartz S, Papworth E, Thiam-Niangoin M, Abo K, Drame F, Diouf D, et al. An urgent need for integration of family planning services into HIV care: the high burden of unplanned pregnancy, termination of pregnancy, and limited contraception use among female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2015;68 Suppl 2:S91–8. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000000448 25723996.

10. Hakim AJ, Aho J, Semde G, Diarrassouba M, Ehoussou K, Vuylsteke B, et al. The Epidemiology of HIV and Prevention Needs of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire. PLoS ONE. 2015;10(4):e0125218. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0125218 25909484.

11. CNLS. Plan stratégique national de lutte contre l'infection a VIH, le SIDA et les IST 2011–2015. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Conseil National de Lutte contre le SIDA, 2011.

12. Maheu-Giroux M, Vesga J, Diabaté S, Alary M, Baral S, Diouf D, et al. Changing dynamics of HIV transmission in Côte d’Ivoire: modeling who acquired and transmitted infections and estimating the impact of past HIV interventions (1976–2015). JAIDS. 2017. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000001434 28471837.

13. INS, ORC Macro. Enquête Démographique et de Santé, Côte d'Ivoire 1998–1999. Calverton, MD: Institute National de la Statistique et ORC Macro, 2001.

14. INS, MLS, ORC Macro. Enquête sur les Indicateurs du Sida, Côte d'Ivoire 2005. Calverton, MD: Institut National de la Statistique (INS), Ministère de la Lutte contre le Sida [Côte d'Ivoire] et ORC Macro., 2006.

15. N'Cho S, Kouassi L, Koffi A, Schoemaker J, Barrère M, Barrère B, et al. Enquête Démographique et de Santé, Côte d'Ivoire 1994. Calverton, MD: Institut National de la Statistique et Macro International Inc., 1995.

16. Mackelprang RD, Baeten JM, Donnell D, Celum C, Farquhar C, de Bruyn G, et al. Quantifying ongoing HIV-1 exposure in HIV-1-serodiscordant couples to identify individuals with potential host resistance to HIV-1. J Infect Dis. 2012;206(8):1299–308. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jis480 22926009.

17. Naicker N, Kharsany AB, Werner L, van Loggerenberg F, Mlisana K, Garrett N, et al. Risk Factors for HIV Acquisition in High Risk Women in a Generalised Epidemic Setting. AIDS Behav. 2015;19(7):1305–16. doi: 10.1007/s10461-015-1002-5 25662962.

18. UNDP. World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision—Key Findings and Advance Tables. New York, NY: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, 2015 Contract No.: ESA/P/WP.241.

19. Alkema L, Raftery AE, Brown T. Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sex Transm Infect. 2008;84 Suppl 1:i11–i6. doi: 10.1136/sti.2008.029991 18647860.

20. Poole D, Raftery AE. Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models: The Bayesian Melding Approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2000;95(452):1244–55. doi: 10.2307/2669764

21. Raftery AE, Bao L. Estimating and projecting trends in HIV/AIDS generalized epidemics using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Biometrics. 2010;66(4):1162–73. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2010.01399.x 20222935.

22. Benoit SN, Gershy-Damet GM, Coulibaly A, Koffi K, Sangare VS, Koffi D, et al. Seroprevalence of HIV infection in the general population of the Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 1990;3(12):1193–6. 2173745.

23. Koffi K, Gershy-Damet GM, Peeters M, Soro B, Rey JL, Delaporte E. Rapid spread of HIV infections in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, 1987–1990. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 1992;11(3):271–3. 1317802.

24. Ghys PD, Diallo MO, Ettiègne-Traoré V, Kalé K, Tawil O, Caraël M, et al. Increase in condom use and decline in HIV and sexually transmitted diseases among female sex workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 1991–1998. AIDS. 2002;16(2):251–8. 11807310.

25. Vuylsteke B, Semdé G, Sika L, Crucitti T, Ettiègne Traoré V, Buvé A, et al. HIV and STI prevalence among female sex workers in Côte d'Ivoire: why targeted prevention programs should be continued and strengthened. PLoS ONE. 2012;7(3):e32627. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032627 22403685.

26. Bamba A, Grover E, Ezouatchi R, Thiam-Niangoin M, Papworth E, Grosso A, et al. Étude biologique et comportementale des IST/VIH/SIDA chez les professionnelles du sexe du district d'Abidjan et examen des interventions en direction des populations clefs en Côte d'Ivoire. Ministère de la Santé et de la Lutte contre le SIDA, ENDA Santé, Johns Hopkins University, 2014.

27. Vuylsteke BL, Ghys PD, Traoré M, Konan Y, Mah-Bi G, Maurice C, et al. HIV prevalence and risk behavior among clients of female sex workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. AIDS. 2003;17(11):1691–4. doi: 10.1097/01.aids.0000060419.84040.61 12853752.

28. DIPE. Rapport annuel VIH/Sida du secteur santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2007–2008. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification et de l'Évaluation. Ministère de la Santé et de l'Hygiène Publique, 2009.

29. DIPE. Rapport annuel des indicateurs VIH du secteur santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2009. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification et de l'Évaluation. Ministère de la Santé et de l'Hygiène Publique., 2010.

30. DIPE. Rapport annuel des indicateurs VIH du secteur Santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2010. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification et de l'Évaluation. Ministère de la Santé et de l'Hygiène Publique., 2011.

31. DIPE. Rapport annuel des indicateurs VIH du secteur santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2011. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification, et de l'Évaluation. Ministère de la Santé et de la Lutte contre le Sida, 2012.

32. DIPE. Rapport annuel des indicateurs VIH du secteur santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2012. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification et de l'Évaluation. Ministère de la Santé et de la Lutte contre le SIDA., 2013.

33. DIPE. Rapport annuel des indicateurs VIH du secteur santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2013. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification et de l'Évaluation, 2014.

34. DIPE. Rapport annuel des indicateurs VIH du secteur santé en Côte d'Ivoire 2014—Non consolidé. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction de l'Information, de la Planification et de l'Évaluation. Ministère de la santé et de la lutte contre le sida., 2015.

35. Cohen MS, Chen YQ, McCauley M, Gamble T, Hosseinipour MC, Kumarasamy N, et al. Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy. N Engl J Med. 2011;365(6):493–505. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1105243 21767103.

36. Donnell D, Baeten JM, Kiarie J, Thomas KK, Stevens W, Cohen CR, et al. Heterosexual HIV-1 transmission after initiation of antiretroviral therapy: a prospective cohort analysis. Lancet. 2010;375(9731):2092–8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(10)60705-2 20537376.

37. Piot P, Abdool Karim SS, Hecht R, Legido-Quigley H, Buse K, Stover J, et al. Defeating AIDS—advancing global health. Lancet. 2015;386(9989):171–218. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60658-4 26117719.

38. Dutta A, Barker C, Kallarakal A. The HIV Treatment Gap: Estimates of the Financial Resources Needed versus Available for Scale-Up of Antiretroviral Therapy in 97 Countries from 2015 to 2020. PLoS Med. 2015;12(11):e1001907; discussion e. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001907 26599990;

39. Tanser F, de Oliveira T, Maheu-Giroux M, Bärnighausen T. Concentrated HIV subepidemics in generalized epidemic settings. Curr Opin HIV AIDS. 2014;9(2):115–25. doi: 10.1097/COH.0000000000000034 24356328.

40. Anderson SJ, Cherutich P, Kilonzo N, Cremin I, Fecht D, Kimanga D, et al. Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study. Lancet. 2014;384(9939):249–56. 25042235. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61053-9

41. Mikkelsen E, Hontelez JA, Jansen MP, Bärnighausen T, Hauck K, Johansson KA, et al. Evidence for scaling up HIV treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for incorporating health system constraints. PLoS Med. 2017;14(2):e1002240. Epub 2017/02/21. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002240 28222126.

42. Rosen S, Maskew M, Fox MP, Nyoni C, Mongwenyana C, Malete G, et al. Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV at a Patient's First Clinic Visit: The RapIT Randomized Controlled Trial. PLoS Med. 2016;13(5):e1002015. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002015 27163694.

43. Maheu-Giroux M, Tanser F, Boily MC, Pillay D, Joseph SA, Barnighausen T. Determinants of time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. AIDS. 2017;31(7):1017–24. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001435 28252526.

44. Fishel J, Barrère B, Kishor S. Validity of data on self-reported HIV status in Malawi and Uganda and implications for measurement of ARV coverage. Rockville, MD: ICF International, 2014 Contract No.: DHS Methodological Reports No. 10.

45. UNAIDS. Global AIDS Response Progress Reporting 2016—Construction of core indicators for monitoring the 2011 United Nations Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS. Geneva, Switzerland: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, 2016.

46. Lecher S, Ellenberger D, Kim AA, Fonjungo PN, Agolory S, Borget MY, et al. Scale-up of HIV Viral Load Monitoring—Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2015;64(46):1287–90. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6446a3 26605986.

47. Phillips A, Shroufi A, Vojnov L, Cohn J, Roberts T, Ellman T, et al. Sustainable HIV treatment in Africa through viral-load-informed differentiated care. Nature. 2015;528(7580):S68–76. doi: 10.1038/nature16046 26633768.