#PAGE_PARAMS# #ADS_HEAD_SCRIPTS# #MICRODATA#

Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis


To inform future eradication efforts, Natalie Molodecky and colleagues investigate the determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan.


Vyšlo v časopise: Risk factors and short-term projections for serotype-1 poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan: A spatiotemporal analysis. PLoS Med 14(6): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002323
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002323

Souhrn

To inform future eradication efforts, Natalie Molodecky and colleagues investigate the determinants of historical poliomyelitis incidence in Pakistan.


Zdroje

1. GPEI. Data and monitoring. Wild poliovirus. [26 January 2017]. Available from: http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek/Wildpolioviruslist.aspx.

2. Owais A, Khowaja AR, Ali SA, Zaidi AK. Pakistan's expanded programme on immunization: an overview in the context of polio eradication and strategies for improving coverage. Vaccine. 2013;31(33):3313–9. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.05.015 23707167

3. WHO. The Polio Eradication & Endgame Strategic Plan 2013–2018.2013.

4. Chang AC, E.; Hameed S.; Lamb R.; Mixon R. Eradicating Polio in Afghanistan and Pakistan. A Report of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center. Center for Strategic & International Studies. 2012.

5. Garon JR, Orenstein WA. Overcoming barriers to polio eradication in conflict areas. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015;15(10):1122–4. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00008-0 26179315

6. Khowaja AR, Khan SA, Nizam N, Omer SB, Zaidi A. Parental perceptions surrounding polio and self-reported non-participation in polio supplementary immunization activities in Karachi, Pakistan: a mixed methods study. Bull World Health Organ. 2012;90(11):822–30. doi: 10.2471/BLT.12.106260 23226894

7. John TJ, Jayabal P. Oral polio vaccination of children in the tropics. I. The poor seroconversion rates and the absence of viral interference. American journal of epidemiology. 1972;96(4):263–9. 4342327

8. Cochi SL, Linkins RW. The final phase of polio eradication: new vaccines and complex choices. J Infect Dis. 2012;205(2):169–71. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jir727 22158681

9. Grassly NC, Fraser C, Wenger J, Deshpande JM, Sutter RW, Heymann DL, et al. New strategies for the elimination of polio from India. Science. 2006;314(5802):1150–3. doi: 10.1126/science.1130388 17110580

10. O'Reilly KM, Durry E, ul Islam O, Quddus A, Abid N, Mir TP, et al. The effect of mass immunisation campaigns and new oral poliovirus vaccines on the incidence of poliomyelitis in Pakistan and Afghanistan, 2001–11: a retrospective analysis. Lancet. 2012;380(9840):491–8. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60648-5 22766207

11. O'Reilly KM, Chauvin C, Aylward RB, Maher C, Okiror S, Wolff C, et al. A statistical model of the international spread of wild poliovirus in Africa used to predict and prevent outbreaks. PLoS Med. 2011;8(10):e1001109. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001109 22028632

12. Upfill-Brown AM, Lyons HM, Pate MA, Shuaib F, Baig S, Hu H, et al. Predictive spatial risk model of poliovirus to aid prioritization and hasten eradication in Nigeria. BMC medicine. 2014;12:92. doi: 10.1186/1741-7015-12-92 24894345

13. McCarthy KA, Chabot-Couture G, Shuaib F. A spatial model of Wild Poliovirus Type 1 in Kano State, Nigeria: calibration and assessment of elimination probability. BMC infectious diseases. 2016;16(1):521. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1817-3 27681708

14. Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in 2 high-risk areas in northern India. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S398–411.

15. Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S412–23.

16. Mangal TD, Aylward RB, Shuaib F, Mwanza M, Pate MA, Abanida E, et al. Spatial Dynamics and High Risk Transmission Pathways of Poliovirus in Nigeria 2001–2013. PLoS ONE. 2016;11(9):e0163065. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163065 27668435

17. Kramer AM, Pulliam JT, Alexander LW, Park AW, Rohani P, Drake JM. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Royal Society open science. 2016;3(8):160294. doi: 10.1098/rsos.160294 27853607

18. Wesolowski A, Qureshi T, Boni MF, Sundsoy PR, Johansson MA, Rasheed SB, et al. Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015;112(38):11887–92. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1504964112 26351662

19. Merler S, Ajelli M. The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza. Proceedings Biological sciences. 2010;277(1681):557–65. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2009.1605 19864279

20. Kraemer MU, Faria NR, Reiner RC Jr., Golding N, Nikolay B, Stasse S, et al. Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015–16: a modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2016;17(3): 330–338. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30513-8 28017559

21. Marx A, Glass JD, Sutter RW. Differential diagnosis of acute flaccid paralysis and its role in poliomyelitis surveillance. Epidemiol Rev. 2000;22(2):298–316. 11218380

22. Levitt A, Diop OM, Tangermann RH, Paladin F, Kamgang JB, Burns CC, et al. Surveillance systems to track progress toward global polio eradication—worldwide, 2012–2013. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014;63(16):356–61. 24759658

23. R-INLA package. Available from: http://www.r-inla.org/.

24. Simini F, Gonzalez MC, Maritan A, Barabasi AL. A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature. 2012;484(7392):96–100. doi: 10.1038/nature10856 22367540

25. Burnham KPA, D. R. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. 2 ed: Springer-Verlag New York; 2002.

26. O'Reilly KM, Cori A, Durry E, Wadood MZ, Bosan A, Aylward RB, et al. A New Method for Estimating the Coverage of Mass Vaccination Campaigns Against Poliomyelitis From Surveillance Data. American journal of epidemiology. 2015;182(11):961–70. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwv199 26568569

27. Alam MM, Sharif S, Shaukat S, Angez M, Khurshid A, Rehman L, et al. Genomic Surveillance Elucidates Persistent Wild Poliovirus Transmission During 2013–2015 in Major Reservoir Areas of Pakistan. Clin Infect Dis. 2016;62(2):190–8. doi: 10.1093/cid/civ831 26417032

28. GPEI. Data and monitoring. Vaccine-derived poliovirus. [01 March 2017]. Available from: http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx.

29. GPEI. The switch from tOPV to bOPV: implementation guidelines. 2015 Aug. [01 March 2017]. Available from: http://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/poliomyelitis/endgame_objective2/oral_polio_vaccine/OPV-Switch-Guidelines-Aug2015.pdf?ua=1.

30. Grassly NC, Wenger J, Durrani S, Bahl S, Deshpande JM, Sutter RW, et al. Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine: a case-control study. Lancet. 2007;369(9570):1356–62. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60531-5 17448821

31. Mir F, Quadri F, Mach O, Ahmed I, Bhatti Z, Khan A, et al. Monovalent type-1 oral poliovirus vaccine given at short intervals in Pakistan: a randomised controlled, four-arm, open-label, non-inferiority trial. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015;15(8):889–97. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00093-6 26093979

32. Saleem AF, Mach O, Quadri F, Khan A, Bhatti Z, Rehman NU, et al. Immunogenicity of poliovirus vaccines in chronically malnourished infants: a randomized controlled trial in Pakistan. Vaccine. 2015;33(24):2757–63. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.04.055 25917673

33. Estivariz CF, Anand A, Gary HE Jr., Rahman M, Islam J, Bari TI, et al. Immunogenicity of three doses of bivalent, trivalent, or type 1 monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines with a 2 week interval between doses in Bangladesh: an open-label, non-inferiority, randomised, controlled trial. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015;15(8):898–904. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00094-8 26093980

34. Bahl S, Estivariz CF, Sutter RW, Sarkar BK, Verma H, Jain V, et al. Cross-sectional serologic assessment of immunity to poliovirus infection in high-risk areas of northern India. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S243–51.

35. Estivariz CF, Jafari H, Sutter RW, John TJ, Jain V, Agarwal A, et al. Immunogenicity of supplemental doses of poliovirus vaccine for children aged 6–9 months in Moradabad, India: a community-based, randomised controlled trial. Lancet Infect Dis. 2012;12(2):128–35. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70190-6 22071249

36. Deshpande JM, Bahl S, Sarkar BK, Estivariz CF, Sharma S, Wolff C, et al. Assessing population immunity in a persistently high-risk area for wild poliovirus transmission in India: a serological study in Moradabad, Western Uttar Pradesh. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S225–33.

37. Mangal TD, Aylward RB, Mwanza M, Gasasira A, Abanida E, Pate MA, et al. Key issues in the persistence of poliomyelitis in Nigeria: a case-control study. Lancet Glob Health. 2014;2(2):e90–7. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70168-2 25104665

Štítky
Interné lekárstvo

Článok vyšiel v časopise

PLOS Medicine


2017 Číslo 6
Najčítanejšie tento týždeň
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
Kurzy

Zvýšte si kvalifikáciu online z pohodlia domova

Aktuální možnosti diagnostiky a léčby litiáz
nový kurz
Autori: MUDr. Tomáš Ürge, PhD.

Všetky kurzy
Prihlásenie
Zabudnuté heslo

Zadajte e-mailovú adresu, s ktorou ste vytvárali účet. Budú Vám na ňu zasielané informácie k nastaveniu nového hesla.

Prihlásenie

Nemáte účet?  Registrujte sa

#ADS_BOTTOM_SCRIPTS#