Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries
Background:
Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers.
Methods and Findings:
We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT) titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5.
Conclusions:
Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk of infections to adolescents and adults. If a vaccine conferring lifelong protection against clinical and subclinical infection were available pertussis could be eliminated. Currently, continuing circulation of the pathogen at a subclinical level provides a refuge for the pathogen in which it can evolve and adjust to infect vaccinated populations.
: Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Vyšlo v časopise:
Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries. PLoS Med 7(6): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000291
Kategorie:
Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000291
Souhrn
Background:
Despite large-scale vaccination programmes, pertussis has remained endemic in all European countries and has been on the rise in many countries in the last decade. One of the reasons that have been discussed for the failure of vaccination to eliminate the disease is continued circulation of the pathogen Bordetella pertussis by mostly asymptomatic and mild infections in adolescents and adults. To understand the impact of asymptomatic and undiagnosed infection on the transmission dynamics of pertussis we analysed serological data from five European countries in combination with information about social contact patterns from five of those countries to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers.
Methods and Findings:
We compared two different methods for estimating incidence from individual data on IgG pertussis toxin (PT) titres. One method combines the cross-sectional surveys of titres with longitudinal information about the distribution of amplitude and decay rate of titres in a back-calculation approach. The second method uses age-dependent contact matrices and cross-sectional surveys of IgG PT titres to estimate a next generation matrix for pertussis transmission among age groups. The next generation approach allows for computation of basic reproduction numbers for five European countries. Our main findings are that the seroincidence of infections as estimated with the first method in all countries lies between 1% and 6% per annum with a peak in the adolescent age groups and a second lower peak in young adults. The incidence of infections as estimated by the second method lies slightly lower with ranges between 1% and 4% per annum. There is a remarkably good agreement of the results obtained with the two methods. The basic reproduction numbers are similar across countries at around 5.5.
Conclusions:
Vaccination with currently used vaccines cannot prevent continued circulation and reinfection with pertussis, but has shifted the bulk of infections to adolescents and adults. If a vaccine conferring lifelong protection against clinical and subclinical infection were available pertussis could be eliminated. Currently, continuing circulation of the pathogen at a subclinical level provides a refuge for the pathogen in which it can evolve and adjust to infect vaccinated populations.
: Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Zdroje
1. RohaniP
EarnDJ
GrenfellBT
2000 Impact of immunisation on pertussis transmission in England and Wales. Lancet 355 285 286
2. GayNJ
MillerE
2000 Pertussis transmission in England and Wales. Lancet 355 1553 1554
3. SchellekensJ
von KonigCH
GardnerP
2005 Pertussis sources of infection and routes of transmission in the vaccination era. Pediatr Infect Dis J 24 S19 24
4. VersteeghFG
MertensPL
de MelkerHE
RoordJJ
SchellekensJF
2005 Age-specific long-term course of IgG antibodies to pertussis toxin after symptomatic infection with Bordetella pertussis. Epidemiol Infect 133 737 748
5. CorteseMM
BaughmanAL
BrownK
SrivastavaP
2007 A “new age” in pertussis prevention new opportunities through adult vaccination. Am J Prev Med 32 177 185
6. HethcoteHW
1997 An age-structured model for pertussis transmission. Math Biosci 145 89 136
7. Van RieA
HethcoteHW
2004 Adolescent and adult pertussis vaccination: computer simulations of five new strategies. Vaccine 22 3154 3165
8. van BovenM
de MelkerHE
SchellekensJF
KretzschmarM
2000 Waning immunity and sub-clinical infection in an epidemic model: implications for pertussis in The Netherlands. Math Biosci 164 161 182
9. van BovenM
de MelkerHE
SchellekensJF
KretzschmarM
2001 A model based evaluation of the 1996–7 pertussis epidemic in The Netherlands. Epidemiol Infect 127 73 85
10. TozziAE
PandolfiE
CelentanoLP
MassariM
SalmasoS
2007 Comparison of pertussis surveillance systems in Europe. Vaccine 25 291 297
11. CelentanoLP
MassariM
ParamattiD
SalmasoS
TozziAE
2005 Resurgence of pertussis in Europe. Pediatr Infect Dis J 24 761 765
12. de MelkerHE
VersteeghFG
SchellekensJF
TeunisPF
KretzschmarM
2006 The incidence of Bordetella pertussis infections estimated in the population from a combination of serological surveys. J Infect 53 106 113
13. PebodyRG
GayNJ
GiammancoA
BaronS
SchellekensJ
2005 The seroepidemiology of Bordetella pertussis infection in Western Europe. Epidemiol Infect 133 159 171
14. SimonsenJ
MolbakK
FalkenhorstG
KrogfeltKA
LinnebergA
2009 Estimation of incidences of infectious diseases based on antibody measurements. Stat Med 28 1882 1895
15. SimonsenJ
StridMA
MolbakK
KrogfeltKA
LinnebergA
2008 Sero-epidemiology as a tool to study the incidence of Salmonella infections in humans. Epidemiol Infect 136 895 902
16. DevilleJG
CherryJD
ChristensonPD
PinedaE
LeachCT
1995 Frequency of unrecognized Bordetella pertussis infections in adults. Clin Infect Dis 21 639 642
17. HodderSL
CherryJD
MortimerEAJr
FordAB
GornbeinJ
2000 Antibody responses to Bordetella pertussis antigens and clinical correlations in elderly community residents. Clin Infect Dis 31 7 14
18. StrebelP
NordinJ
EdwardsK
HuntJ
BesserJ
2001 Population-based incidence of pertussis among adolescents and adults, Minnesota, 1995–1996. J Infect Dis 183 1353 1359
19. WallingaJ
EdmundsWJ
KretzschmarM
1999 Perspective: human contact patterns and the spread of airborne infectious diseases. Trends Microbiol 7 372 377
20. WallingaJ
TeunisP
KretzschmarM
2006 Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents. Am J Epidemiol 164 936 944
21. MossongJ
HensN
JitM
BeutelsP
AuranenK
2008 Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med 5 e74 doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074
22. GiammancoA
ChiariniA
MaplePA
AndrewsN
PebodyR
2003 European Sero-Epidemiology Network: standardisation of the assay results for pertussis. Vaccine 22 112 120
23. VersteeghFG
SchellekensJF
NagelkerkeAF
RoordJJ
2002 Laboratory-confirmed reinfections with Bordetella pertussis. Acta Paediatr 91 95 97
24. TeunisPF
van der HeijdenOG
de MelkerHE
SchellekensJF
VersteeghFG
2002 Kinetics of the IgG antibody response to pertussis toxin after infection with B. pertussis. Epidemiol Infect 129 479 489
25. DiekmannO
HeesterbeekJAP
2000 Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis and interpretation New York Wiley
26. BaughmanAL
BisgardKM
EdwardsKM
GurisD
DeckerMD
2004 Establishment of diagnostic cutoff points for levels of serum antibodies to pertussis toxin, filamentous hemagglutinin, and fimbriae in adolescents and adults in the United States. Clin Diagn Lab Immunol 11 1045 1053
27. SmieszekT
2009 A mechanistic model of infection: why duration and intensity of contacts should be included in models of disease spread. Theor Biol Med Model 6 25
28. KretzschmarM
MikolajczykRT
2009 Contact profiles in eight European countries and implications for modelling the spread of airborne infectious diseases. PLoS One 4 e5931 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005931
29. AndersonRM
MayRM
1991 Infectious disease of humans: dynamics and control Oxford Oxford University Press
30. WallingaJ
TeunisP
KretzschmarM
2003 Reconstruction of measles dynamics in a vaccinated population. Vaccine 21 2643 2650
31. van BovenM
KretzschmarM
WallingaJ
O'NeillP
WichmannO
2010 Estimation of measles vaccine efficacy and critical vaccination coverage in a highly vaccinated population. J Roy Soc Interface In press
32. EdmundsWJ
GayNJ
KretzschmarM
PebodyRG
WachmannH
2000 The pre-vaccination epidemiology of measles, mumps and rubella in Europe: implications for modelling studies. Epidemiol Infect 125 635 650
33. RichardsonM
EllimanD
MaguireH
SimpsonJ
NicollA
2001 Evidence base of incubation periods, periods of infectiousness and exclusion policies for the control of communicable diseases in schools and preschools. Pediatr Infect Dis J 20 380 391
34. MooiFR
van LooIH
KingAJ
2001 Adaptation of Bordetella pertussis to vaccination: a cause for its reemergence? Emerg Infect Dis 7 526 528
35. De GreeffSC
DekkersAL
TeunisP
Rahamat-LangendoenJC
MooiFR
2009 Seasonal patterns in time series of pertussis. Epidemiol Infect 137 1388 1395
36. StorsaeterJ
HallanderHO
GustafssonL
OlinP
2003 Low levels of antipertussis antibodies plus lack of history of pertussis correlate with susceptibility after household exposure to Bordetella pertussis. Vaccine 21 3542 3549
37. CherryJD
GrimprelE
GuisoN
HeiningerU
MertsolaJ
2005 Defining pertussis epidemiology: clinical, microbiologic and serologic perspectives. Pediatr Infect Dis J 24 S25 S34
Štítky
Interné lekárstvoČlánok vyšiel v časopise
PLOS Medicine
2010 Číslo 6
- Statinová intolerance
- Očkování proti virové hemoragické horečce Ebola experimentální vakcínou rVSVDG-ZEBOV-GP
- Co dělat při intoleranci statinů?
- Pleiotropní účinky statinů na kardiovaskulární systém
- DESATORO PRE PRAX: Aktuálne odporúčanie ESPEN pre nutričný manažment u pacientov s COVID-19
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
- Gestational Age at Delivery and Special Educational Need: Retrospective Cohort Study of 407,503 Schoolchildren
- Evaluating the Quality of Research into a Single Prognostic Biomarker: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 83 Studies of C-Reactive Protein in Stable Coronary Artery Disease
- Closing the Gaps: From Science to Action in Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Africa
- Maternal Health: Time to Deliver