The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model

1. Schwartlander B, Stover J, Hallett T, Atun R, Avila C, Gouws E, et al. Towards an improved investment approach for an effective response to HIV/AIDS. Lancet. 2011;377:2031–2041. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60702-2 21641026

2. National Institutes of Health. Starting antiretroviral treatment early improves outcomes for HIV-infected individuals. 2015 May 27 [cited 26 Jul 2015]. Available: http://www.nih.gov/news/health/may2015/niaid-27.htm. doi: 10.1177/1363459314556904 25394654

3. Cohen MS, Chen YQ, McCauley M, Gamble T, Hosseinipour MC, Kumarasamy N, et al. Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy. N Engl J Med. 2011;365:493–505. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1105243 21767103

4. Cohen M, Chen Y, McCauley M, Gamble T, Hosseinipour M, Kumarasamy N, et al. Final results of the HPTN 052 randomized controlled trial: antiretroviral therapy prevents HIV transmission. 8th IAS Conference on HIV Pathogenesis, Treatment & Prevention; 19–22 Jul 2015; Vancouver, Canada.

5. Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. 90-90-90: an ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic. 2014 Oct [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Available: http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/90-90-90_en_0.pdf.

6. Hallett TB. Estimating the HIV incidence rate: recent and future developments. Curr Opin HIV AIDS. 2011;6:102–107. doi: 10.1097/COH.0b013e328343bfdb 21505383

7. World Health Organization, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. WHO/UNAIDS technical update on HIV incidence assays for surveillance and epidemic monitoring. 2013 May 30 [cited 26 Jul 2015]. Available: http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/sub_landing/files/2013_TechnicalUpdate_WHO_UNAIDS_HIVincidenceAssays.pdf.

8. Gouws E. Methods for estimating HIV incidence. UNAIDS Quarterly Update on HIV Epidemiology. 2010 [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Available: http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/epi_alert_1stqtr2010_en_0.pdf.

9. Gouws E, Cuchi P, international Collaboration on Estimating HIV Incidence by Modes of Transmission. Focusing the HIV response through estimating the major modes of HIV transmission: a multi-country analysis. Sex Transm Infect. 2012;88:I76–I85. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2012-050719 23172348

10. Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. Modelling the expected short-term distribution of incidence of HIV infections by exposure group: manual. 2007 [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Available: http://data.unaids.org/pub/Manual/2007/20090407_ModeOfTransmission_manual2007_en.pdf.

11. Case KK, Ghys PD, Gouws E, Eaton JW, Borquez A, Stover J, et al. Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning. Bull World Health Organ. 2012;90:831–838. doi: 10.2471/Blt.12.102574 23226895

12. Shubber Z, Mishra S, Vesga JF, Boily MC. The HIV Modes of Transmission model: a systematic review of its findings and adherence to guidelines. J Int AIDS Soc. 2014;17:18928. doi: 10.7448/Ias.17.1.18928 24962034

13. Foss A, Prudden H, Mehl A, Zimmerman C, Ashburn K, Trasi R, et al. The UNAIDS Modes of Transmission model: a useful tool for decision making? Sex Transm Infect. 2011;87:A167. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2011-050108.160

14. Mishra S, Pickles M, Blanchard JF, Moses S, Shubber Z, Boily MC. Validation of the Modes of Transmission model as a tool to prioritize HIV prevention targets: a comparative modelling analysis. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e101690. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0101690 25014543

15. Prudden HJ, Watts CH, Vickerman P, Bobrova N, Heise L, Ogungbemi MK, et al. Can the UNAIDS modes of transmission model be improved?: a comparison of the original and revised model projections using data from a setting in west Africa. AIDS. 2013;27:2623–2635. doi: 10.1097/01.aids.0000432476.22616.2f 23921619

16. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. ALPHA Network: home. 2015 [cited 17 Dec 2015]. Available: http://alpha.lshtm.ac.uk/.

17. Reniers G, Wamukoya M, Urassa M, Nyaguara A, Nakiyingi-Miiro J, Lutalo T, et al. Data Resource Profile: Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network). Int J Epidemiol. 2016;45:83–93. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyv343 26968480

18. Crampin AC, Dube A, Mboma S, Price A, Chihana M, Jahn A, et al. Profile: the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Int J Epidemiol. 2012;41:676–685. doi: 10.1093/ije/dys088 22729235

19. Kishamawe C, Isingo R, Mtenga B, Zaba B, Todd J, Clark B, et al. Health & Demographic Surveillance System Profile: the Magu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Magu HDSS). Int J Epidemiol. 2015;44:1851–1861. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyv188 26403815

20. Corsi DJ, Neuman M, Finlay JE, Subramanian SV. Demographic and health surveys: a profile. Int J Epidemiol. 2012;41:1602–1613. doi: 10.1093/ije/dys184 23148108

21. The DHS Program. Demographic and Health Surveys. 2015 [cited 17 Dec 2015]. Available: http://www.dhsprogram.com/.

22. Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. Methods for deriving UNAIDS estimates. 2016 [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Available: http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/2016_methods-for-deriving-UNAIDS-estimates_en.pdf.

23. Vandepitte J, Lyerla R, Dallabetta G, Crabbe F, Alary M, Buve A. Estimates of the number of female sex workers in different regions of the world. Sex Transm Infect. 2006;82 (Suppl 3):iii18–iii25. doi: 10.1136/sti.2006.020081 16735288

24. Talbott JR. Size matters: the number of prostitutes and the global HIV/AIDS pandemic. PLoS ONE. 2007;2:e543. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000543 17579715

25. Center for Strategic and International Studies Global Health Policy Center. HIV prevention among injection drug users. Washington (District of Columbia): Center for Strategic and International Studies; 2010.

26. Caceres C, Konda K, Pecheny M, Chatterjee A, Lyerla R. Estimating the number of men who have sex with men in low and middle income countries. Sex Transm Infect. 2006;82 (Suppl 3):iii3–iii9. 16735290

27. Mathers BM, Degenhardt L, Phillips B, Wiessing L, Hickman M, Strathdee SA, et al. Global epidemiology of injecting drug use and HIV among people who inject drugs: a systematic review. Lancet. 2008;372:1733–1745. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61311-2 18817968

28. Baral S, Beyrer C, Muessig K, Poteat T, Wirtz AL, Decker MR, et al. Burden of HIV among female sex workers in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2012;12:538–549. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70066-X 22424777

29. United States Census Bureau. HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data Base. 2015 [cited 17 Jul 2015. Available: http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/hiv/interactive/.

30. Beyrer C, Baral SD, van Griensven F, Goodreau SM, Chariyalertsak S, Wirtz AL, et al. Global epidemiology of HIV infection in men who have sex with men. Lancet. 2012;380:367–377. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60821-6 22819660

31. Auvert B, Taljaard D, Lagarde E, Sobngwi-Tambekou J, Sitta M, Puren A. Randomized, controlled intervention trial of male circumcision for reduction of HIV infection risk: The ANRS 1265 trial. PLoS Med. 2005;2:1112–1122. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020298

32. Gray RH, Kigozi G, Serwadda D, Makumbi F, Watya S, Nalugoda F, et al. Male circumcision for HIV prevention in men in Rakai, Uganda: a randomised trial. Lancet. 2007;369:657–666. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60313-4 17321311

33. Bailey RC, Moses S, Parker CB, Agot K, Maclean I, Krieger JN, et al. Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya: a randomised controlled trial. Lancet. 2007;369:643–656. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60312-2 17321310

34. Celum C, Wald A, Lingappa JR, Magaret AS, Wang RS, Mugo N, et al. Acyclovir and transmission of HIV-1 from persons infected with HIV-1 and HSV-2. New Engl J Med. 2010;362:427–439. doi: 10.1056/Nejmoa0904849 20089951

35. Baeten JM, Donnell D, Ndase P, Mugo NR, Campbell JD, Wangisi J, et al. Antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV prevention in heterosexual men and women. New Engl J Med. 2012;367:399–410. doi: 10.1056/Nejmoa1108524 22784037

36. Lopman B, Nyamukapa C, Mushati P, Mupambireyi Z, Mason P, Garnett GP, et al. HIV incidence in 3 years of follow-up of a Zimbabwe cohort—1998–2000 to 2001–03: contributions of proximate and underlying determinants to transmission. Int J Epidemiol. 2008;37:88–105. doi: 10.1093/ije/dym255 18203774

37. Lopman BA, Nyamukapa C, Hallett TB, Mushati P, Spark-du Preez N, Kurwa F, et al. Role of widows in the heterosexual transmission of HIV in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, 1998–2003. Sex Transm Infect. 2009;85 (Suppl 1):i41–i48. doi: 10.1136/sti.2008.033043 19307340

38. Nalugoda F, Guwatudde D, Bwaninka JB, Makumbi FE, Lutalo T, Kagaayi J, et al. Marriage and the risk of incident HIV infection in Rakai, Uganda. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2014;65:91–98. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3182a7f08a 24419066

39. Fazito E, Cuchi P, Mahy M, Brown T. Analysis of duration of risk behaviour for key populations: a literature review. Sex Transm Infect. 2012;88 (Suppl 2):i24–i32. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2012-050647 23172343

40. Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. Fact sheet 2014. 2014 [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Available: http://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/en/media/unaids/contentassets/documents/factsheet/2014/20140716_FactSheet_en.pdf.

41. Elmes J, Nhongo K, Ward H, Hallett T, Nyamukapa C, White PJ, et al. The price of sex: condom use and the determinants of the price of sex among female sex workers in eastern Zimbabwe. J Infect Dis. 2014;210:S569–S578. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiu493 25381377

42. Cuadros DF, Awad SF, Abu-Raddad LJ. Mapping HIV clustering: a strategy for identifying populations at high risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa. Int J Health Geogr. 2013;12:28. doi: 10.1186/1476-072x-12-28 23692994

43. Anderson SJ, Cherutich P, Kilonzo N, Cremin I, Fecht D, Kimanga D, et al. Maximising the effect of combination HIV prevention through prioritisation of the people and places in greatest need: a modelling study. Lancet. 2014;384:249–256. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61053-9 25042235

44. Hallett TB, Zaba B, Todd J, Lopman B, Mwita W, Biraro S, et al. Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation. PLoS Med. 2008;5:e80. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050080 18590346

45. Kelly CA, Soler-Hampejsek E, Mensch BS, Hewett PC. Social desirability bias in sexual behavior reporting: evidence from an interview mode experiment in rural Malawi. Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 2013;39:14–21. doi: 10.1363/3901413 23584464

46. Eaton JW, Johnson LF, Salomon JA, Barnighausen T, Bendavid E, Bershteyn A, et al. HIV Treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Med. 2012;9:e1001245. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245 22802730

47. Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, et al. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. Lancet Glob Health. 2014;2:E23–E34. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109x(13)70172-4 25104632

48. HIV Modelling Consortium. Strengthening the use of mathematical models in community trials. 2013 [cited 20 Aug 2016]. Available: http://www.hivmodelling.org/sites/default/files/publications/Models_in_Community_Trials_18thOctober2012_Final.pdf.

49. Wall KM, Kilembe W, Nizam A, Vwalika C, Kautzman M, Chomba E, et al. Promotion of couples’ voluntary HIV counselling and testing in Lusaka, Zambia by influence network leaders and agents. BMJ Open. 2012;2. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001171

50. Wall K, Karita E, Nizam A, Bekan B, Sardar G, Casanova D, et al. Influence network effectiveness in promoting couples’ HIV voluntary counseling and testing in Kigali, Rwanda. AIDS. 2012;26:217–227. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32834dc593 22008653

51. Medley A, Baggaley R, Bachanas P, Cohen M, Shaffer N, Lo YR. Maximizing the impact of HIV prevention efforts: interventions for couples. AIDS Care. 2013;25:1569–1580. doi: 10.1080/09540121.2013.793269 23656251

52. Weiss HA, Quigley MA, Hayes RJ. Male circumcision and risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis. AIDS. 2000;14:2361–2370. 11089625

53. Redding CA, Jones D, Zulu R, Chitalu N, Cook R, Weiss SM. Stages of change for voluntary medical male circumcision and sexual risk behavior in uncircumcised Zambian men: the Spear and Shield Project. Int J Behav Med. 2015;22:799–806. doi: 10.1007/s12529-015-9485-z 25896876

54. Cook R, Jones D, Redding CA, Zulu R, Chitalu N, Weiss SM. Female partner acceptance as a predictor of men’s readiness to undergo voluntary medical male circumcision in Zambia: the Spear and Shield Project. AIDS Behav. 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10461-015-1079-x

55. Price JE, Phiri L, Mulenga D, Hewett PC, Topp SM, Shiliya N, et al. Behavior change pathways to voluntary medical male circumcision: narrative interviews with circumcision clients in Zambia. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e111602. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111602 25375790

56. Maibvise C, Mavundla TR. Reasons for the low uptake of adult male circumcision for the prevention of HIV transmission in Swaziland. Afr J AIDS Res. 2014;13:281–289. doi: 10.2989/16085906.2014.952652 25388982

57. Jarrett P, Kliner M, Walley J. Early infant male circumcision for human immunodeficiency virus prevention: knowledge and attitudes of women attending a rural hospital in Swaziland, Southern Africa. SAHARA J. 2014;11:61–66. doi: 10.1080/17290376.2014.929530 24957082

58. Mavhu W, Hatzold K, Laver SM, Sherman J, Tengende BR, Mangenah C, et al. Acceptability of early infant male circumcision as an HIV prevention intervention in Zimbabwe: a qualitative perspective. PLoS ONE. 2012;7:e32475. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032475 22384258

59. Montague C, Ngcobo N, Mahlase G, Frohlich J, Pillay C, Yende-Zuma N, et al. Implementation of adolescent-friendly voluntary medical male circumcision using a school based recruitment program in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e96468. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0096468 24788339

60. Gray RH, Wawer MJ, Kigozi G. Programme science research on medical male circumcision scale-up in sub-Saharan Africa. Sex Transm Infect. 2013;89:345–349. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2012-050595 23698513

61. Watts C, Seeley J. Addressing gender inequality and intimate partner violence as critical barriers to an effective HIV response in sub-Saharan Africa. J Int AIDS Soc. 2014;17:19849. doi: 10.7448/IAS.17.1.19849 25499456

62. Croce-Galis M, Hardee K, Gay J. Scaling up evidence informed HV prevention for adolescent girls and young women. 2014 Jun [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Available: http://www.whatworksforwomen.org/system/attachments/68/original/WWFW_Adolescent_Prevention_Brief_June_30_2014.pdf?1404142668.

63. Dhana A, Luchters S, Moore L, Lafort Y, Roy A, Scorgie F, et al. Systematic review of facility-based sexual and reproductive health services for female sex workers in Africa. Global Health. 2014;10:46. doi: 10.1186/1744-8603-10-46 24916010

64. Chersich MF, Luchters S, Ntaganira I, Gerbase A, Lo YR, Scorgie F, et al. Priority interventions to reduce HIV transmission in sex work settings in sub-Saharan Africa and delivery of these services. J Int AIDS Soc. 2013;16:17980. doi: 10.7448/IAS.16.1.17980 23462140

65. Mountain E, Mishra S, Vickerman P, Pickles M, Gilks C, Boily MC. Antiretroviral therapy uptake, attrition, adherence and outcomes among HIV-infected female sex workers: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e105645. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0105645 25265158

66. Croce-Galis M, Hardee K. What works for women and girls: evidence for HIV/AIDS interventions. Chapter 4. Prevention for key affected populations. 2012 [cited 8 Aug 2016]. Washington (District of Columbia): Health Policy Project. Available: http://www.whatworksforwomen.org/system/attachments/34/original/Prevention_for_Key_Affected_Populations.pdf?1342493628.

67. Mishra S, Sgaier SK, Thompson LH, Moses S, Ramesh BM, Alary M, et al. HIV epidemic appraisals for assisting in the design of effective prevention programmes: shifting the paradigm back to basics. PLoS ONE. 2012;7:e32324. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0032324 22396756

68. Sabin ML, Lazarus JV, Frescura L, Gill W, Mahy M. HIV in men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa. Lancet Infect Dis. 2012;12:505–506. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70150-0 22742625

69. Smith AD, Tapsoba P, Peshu N, Sanders EJ, Jaffe HW. Men who have sex with men and HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. Lancet. 2009;374:416–422. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61118-1 19616840

70. McIntyre JA. The need for HIV prevention interventions for men who have sex with men in Africa. Sex Transm Infect. 2010;86:82–83. doi: 10.1136/sti.2009.041640 20332365

71. Muraguri N, Temmerman M, Geibel S. A decade of research involving men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa: current knowledge and future directions. SAHARA J. 2012;9:137–147. doi: 10.1080/17290376.2012.744176 23237068

72. Mutua G, Sanders E, Mugo P, Anzala O, Haberer JE, Bangsberg D, et al. Safety and adherence to intermittent pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1 in African men who have sex with men and female sex workers. PLoS ONE. 2012;7:e33103. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0033103 22511916

73. van Griensven F, Sanders EJ. Understanding HIV risks among men who have sex with men in Africa. Sex Transm Dis. 2008;35:355–356. doi: 10.1097/OLQ.0b013e31816bf64c 18362856

74. Wolf RC, Cheng AS, Kapesa L, Castor D. Building the evidence base for urgent action: HIV epidemiology and innovative programming for men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa. J Int AIDS Soc. 2013;16 (Suppl 3):18903. doi: 10.7448/IAS.16.4.18903 24321118

75. Tucker A, de Swardt G, McIntyre J, Struthers H. How do community-based HIV prevention programmes for men who have sex with men ‘travel’? Lessons from the Ukwazana/Zwakalani journey in South Africa. Cult Health Sex. 2015;17:977–989. doi: 10.1080/13691058.2015.1018948 25752360

76. McNaghten A, Kearns R, Siegler AJ, Phaswana-Mafuya N, Bekker LG, Stephenson R, et al. Sibanye Methods for Prevention Packages Program Project protocol: pilot study of HIV prevention interventions for men who have sex with men in South Africa. JMIR Res Protoc. 2014;3:e55. doi: 10.2196/resprot.3737 25325296

77. Delva W, Beauclair R, Welte A, Vansteelandt S, Hens N, Aerts M, et al. Age-disparity, sexual connectedness and HIV infection in disadvantaged communities around Cape Town, South Africa: a study protocol. BMC Public Health. 2011;11:616. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-616 21810237

78. Gregson S, Nyamukapa CA, Garnett GP, Mason PR, Zhuwau T, Carael M, et al. Sexual mixing patterns and sex-differentials in teenage exposure to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe. Lancet. 2002;359:1896–1903. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)08780-9 12057552

79. Choudhry V, Ambresin AE, Nyakato VN, Agardh A. Transactional sex and HIV risks—evidence from a cross-sectional national survey among young people in Uganda. Global Health Action. 2015;8:27249. doi: 10.3402/gha.v8.27249 26001780

80. Underwood C, Skinner J, Osman N, Schwandt H. Structural determinants of adolescent girls’ vulnerability to HIV: views from community members in Botswana, Malawi, and Mozambique. Soc Sci Med. 2011;73:343–350. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.05.044 21724310

81. Li Y, Marshall CM, Rees HC, Nunez A, Ezeanolue EE, Ehiri JE. Intimate partner violence and HIV infection among women: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Int AIDS Soc. 2014;17:18845. doi: 10.7448/Ias.17.1.18845 24560342

82. Wamoyi J, Mshana G, Mongi A, Neke N, Kapiga S, Changalucha J. A review of interventions addressing structural drivers of adolescents’ sexual and reproductive health vulnerability in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for sexual health programming. Reprod Health. 2014;11:88. doi: 10.1186/1742-4755-11-88 25495605

83. Stockl H, Kalra N, Jacobi J, Watts C. Is early sexual debut a risk factor for HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review. Am J Reprod Immunol. 2013;69:27–40. doi: 10.1111/aji.12043 23176109

84. Drame FM, Peitzmeier S, Lopes M, Ndaw M, Sow A, Diouf D, et al. Gay men and other men who have sex with men in West Africa: evidence from the field. Cult Health Sex. 2013;15 (Suppl):7–21. doi: 10.1080/13691058.2012.748935 23237193

85. Baral SD, Friedman MR, Geibel S, Rebe K, Bozhinov B, Diouf D, et al. Male sex workers: practices, contexts, and vulnerabilities for HIV acquisition and transmission. Lancet. 2015;385:260–273. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60801-1 25059939

86. Harcourt C, Donovan B. The many faces of sex work. Sex Transm Infect. 2005;81:201–206. 15923285

87. Powers KA, Ghani AC, Miller WC, Hoffman IF, Pettifor AE, Kamanga G, et al. The role of acute and early HIV infection in the spread of HIV and implications for transmission prevention strategies in Lilongwe, Malawi: a modelling study. Lancet. 2011;378:256–268. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60842-8 21684591

88. Cohen MS, Dye C, Fraser C, Miller WC, Powers KA, Williams BG. HIV treatment as prevention: debate and commentary—will early infection compromise treatment-as-prevention strategies? PLoS Med. 2012;9:e1001232. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001232 22802728

89. Gregson S, Donnelly CA, Parker CG, Anderson RM. Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions. AIDS. 1996;10:1689–1697. 8970690

90. Mishra S, Boily MC, Schwartz S, Beyrer C, Blanchard JF, Moses S, et al. Data and methods to characterize the role of sex work and to inform sex work programmes in generalized HIV epidemics: evidence to challenge assumptions. Ann Epidemiol. 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2016.06.004

91. Stahlman S, Johnston LG, Yah C, Ketende S, Maziya S, Trapence G, et al. Respondent-driven sampling as a recruitment method for men who have sex with men in southern sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional analysis by wave. Sex Transm Infect. 2016;92:292–298. doi: 10.1136/sextrans-2015-052184 26424712

92. Baral S, Adams D, Lebona J, Kaibe B, Letsie P, Tshehlo R, et al. A cross-sectional assessment of population demographics, HIV risks and human rights contexts among men who have sex with men in Lesotho. J Int AIDS Soc. 2011;14:36. doi: 10.1186/1758-2652-14-36 21726457

93. Baral S, Burrell E, Scheibe A, Brown B, Beyrer C, Bekker LG. HIV risk and associations of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in peri-urban Cape Town, South Africa. BMC Public Health. 2011;11:766. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-11-766 21975248

94. Baral S, Trapence G, Motimedi F, Umar E, Iipinge S, Dausab F, et al. HIV prevalence, risks for HIV infection, and human rights among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Malawi, Namibia, and Botswana. PLoS ONE. 2009;4:e4997. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004997 19325707

95. Beyrer C, Trapence G, Motimedi F, Umar E, Iipinge S, Dausab F, et al. Bisexual concurrency, bisexual partnerships, and HIV among Southern African men who have sex with men. Sex Transm Infect. 2010;86:323–327. doi: 10.1136/sti.2009.040162 20410078

96. Mason K, Ketende S, Peitzmeier S, Ceesay N, Diouf D, Loum J, et al. A cross-sectional analysis of population demographics, HIV knowledge and risk behaviors, and prevalence and associations of HIV among men who have sex with men in the Gambia. AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2013;29:1547–1552. doi: 10.1089/AID.2013.0092 23875674

97. Kerr CC, Stuart RM, Gray RT, Shattock AJ, Fraser-Hurt N, Benedikt C, et al. Optima: a model for HIV epidemic analysis, program prioritization, and resource optimization. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2015;69:365–376. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000000605 25803164