Taxes and Subsidies for Improving Diet and Population Health in Australia: A Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Study

1. Forouzanfar MH, Alexander L, Anderson HR, Bachman VF, Biryukov S, Brauer M, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet. 2015;386:2287–323. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2 26364544

2. Thow AM, Downs S, Jan S. A systematic review of the effectiveness of food taxes and subsidies to improve diets: understanding the recent evidence. Nutr Rev. 2014;72(9):551–65. doi: 10.1111/nure.12123 25091552

3. Epstein LH, Jankowiak N, Nederkoorn C, Raynor HA, French SA, Finkelstein E. Experimental research on the relation between food price changes and food-purchasing patterns: a targeted review. Am J Clin Nutr. 2012;95(4):789–809. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.111.024380 22378726

4. Mytton OT, Clarke D, Rayner M. Taxing unhealthy food and drinks to improve health. BMJ. 2012;344.

5. Batis C, Rivera JA, Popkin BM, Taillie LS. First-year evaluation of Mexico’s tax on nonessential energy-dense foods: an observational study. PLoS Med. 2016;13(7):e1002057. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002057 27379797

6. Zhen C, Finkelstein EA, Nonnemaker JM, Karns SA, Todd JE. Predicting the effects of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on food and beverage demand in a large demand system. Am J Agric Econ. 2014;96(1):1–25. doi: 10.1093/ajae/aat049 24839299

7. Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Schilling C, Yang Q, Kaye-Blake W, Genç M, et al. Food prices and consumer demand: differences across income levels and ethnic groups. PLoS ONE. 2013;8(10):e75934. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075934 24098408

8. Tiffin R, Balcombe K, Salois M, Kehlbacher A. Estimating food and drink elasticities. Reading: University of Reading; 2011.

9. Smed S, Jensen JD, Denver S. Socio-economic characteristics and the effect of taxation as a health policy instrument. Food Policy. 2007;32(5):624–39.

10. Sacks G, Veerman JL, Moodie M, Swinburn B. ‘Traffic-light’ nutrition labelling and ‘junk-food’ tax: a modelled comparison of cost-effectiveness for obesity prevention. Int J Obes (Lond). 2011;35(7):1001–9.

11. Veerman JL, Sacks G, Antonopoulos N, Martin J. The impact of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on health and health care costs: a modelling study. PLoS ONE. 2016;11(4):e0151460. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0151460 27073855

12. Smith-Spangler CM, Juusola JL, Enns EA, Owens DK, Garber AM. Population strategies to decrease sodium intake and the burden of cardiovascular disease. Ann Intern Med. 2010;152(8):481–7. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-152-8-201004200-00212 20194225

13. Eyles H, Mhurchu CN, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Food pricing strategies, population diets, and non-communicable disease: a systematic review of simulation studies. PLoS Med. 2012;9(12):e1001353. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001353 23239943

14. Nnoaham KE, Sacks G, Rayner M, Mytton O, Gray A. Modelling income group differences in the health and economic impacts of targeted food taxes and subsidies. Int J Epidemiol. 2009;38(5):1324–33. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyp214 19483200

15. Mytton O, Gray A, Rayner M, Rutter H. Could targeted food taxes improve health? J Epidemiol Community Health. 2007;61(8):689–94. doi: 10.1136/jech.2006.047746 17630367

16. Danish Ministry of Taxation. Danish tax reform 2010. Copenhagen: Danish Ministry of Taxation; 2009 Nov [cited 2017 Jan 17]. From: http://www.skm.dk/english/taxation-in-denmark/danish-tax-reform-2010.

17. Smed S. Financial penalties on foods: the fat tax in Denmark. Nutr Bull. 2012;37(2):142–7.

18. Department of Health. F9. Salt reduction 2017. London: Department of Health; 2017 [cited 2017 Jan 11]. From: https://responsibilitydeal.dh.gov.uk/pledges/pledge/?pl=49.

19. Australia Bureau of Statistics. Consumer price index, Australia, June quarter. Cat No. 6401.0. Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2012.

20. Food Standards Australia New Zealand. AUSNUT 2011–13. Australian food, supplement and nutrient database. Kingston (Australia): Food Standards Australia New Zealand; 2014.

21. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian Health Survey: nutrition first results—foods and nutrients, 2011–12. ABS 4364.0.55.007. Canberra: Australian Government; 2014.

22. Quested T, Ingle R, Parry A. Household food and drink waste in the United Kingdom 2012. Banbury (UK): Waste and Resources Action Programme; 2013.

23. Quested T, Murphy L. Household food and drink waste: a product focus. United Kingdom: Banbury (UK): Waste and Resources Action Programme; 2014.

24. Briggs AD, Mytton OT, Kehlbacher A, Tiffin R, Rayner M, Scarborough P. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. BMJ. 2013;347:f6189. doi: 10.1136/bmj.f6189 24179043

25. Ulubasoglu M, Mallick D, Wadud M, Hone P, Haszler H. How price affects the demand for food in Australia: an analysis of domestic demand elasticities for rural marketing and policy. Australia: Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation; 2011.

26. Law MR, Frost CD, Wald NJ. By how much does dietary salt reduction lower blood-pressure? 1. Analysis of observational data among populations. BMJ. 1991;302(6780):811–5. 2025703

27. Cogswell ME, Mugavero K, Bowman BA, Frieden TR. Dietary sodium and cardiovascular disease risk—measurement matters. N Engl J Med. 2016;375(6):580–6. doi: 10.1056/NEJMsb1607161 27248297

28. Mente A, O’Donnell M, Rangarajan S, Dagenais G, Lear S, McQueen M, et al. Associations of urinary sodium excretion with cardiovascular events in individuals with and without hypertension: a pooled analysis of data from four studies. The Lancet. 2016;388(10043):465–75.

29. Christiansen E, Garby L. Prediction of body weight changes caused by changes in energy balance. Eur J Clin Invest. 2002;32(11):826–30. 12423323

30. Morgenstern H, Bursic ES. A method for using epidemiologic data to estimate the potential impact of an intervention on the health status of a target population. J Community Health. 1982;7(4):292–309. 7130448

31. Lock K, Pomerleau J, Causer L, McKee M. Low fruit and vegetable consumption. In: Ezzati M, Lopez A, Rodgers A, Murray C, editors. comparative quantification of health risks: global and regional burden of disease attributable to selected major risk factors. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2004.

32. Prospective Studies Collaboration. Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies. Lancet. 2002;360(9349):1903–13. 12493255

33. Prospective Studies Collaboration. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet. 2009;373(9669):1083–96. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60318-4 19299006

34. Woodward M, Zhang X, Barzi F, Pan W, Ueshima H, Rodgers A, et al. The effects of diabetes on the risks of major cardiovascular diseases and death in the Asia-Pacific region. Diabetes Care. 2003;26(2):360–6. 12547863

35. Danaei G, Ding EL, Mozaffarian D, Taylor B, Rehm J, Murray CJL, et al. The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors. PLoS Med. 2009;6(4):e1000058. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000058 19399161

36. Cobiac LJ, Vos T, Veerman JL. Cost-effectiveness of Weight Watchers and the Lighten Up to a Healthy Lifestyle program. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2010;34:240–7. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2010.00520.x 20618263

37. Cobiac LJ, Vos T, Veerman JL. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to reduce dietary salt intake. Heart. 2010;96(23):1920–5. doi: 10.1136/hrt.2010.199240 21041840

38. Cobiac LJ, Vos T, Veerman JL. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to promote fruit and vegetable consumption. PLoS ONE. 2010;5(11):e14148. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0014148 21152389

39. Begg S, Vos T, Barker B, Stanley L, Lopez A. Burden of disease and injury in Australia in the new millennium: measuring health loss from diseases, injuries and risk factors. Med J Aust. 2008;188(1):36–40. 18205562

40. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Health system expenditure on disease and injury in Australia 2000–01. 2nd edition. Canberra: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare; 2005 [cited 2017 Jan 17]. From: http://www.aihw.gov.au/publication-detail/?id=6442467716.

41. Cobiac LJ, Vos T, Doran C, Wallace A. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent alcohol-related disease and injury in Australia. Addiction. 2009;104(10):1646–55. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2009.02708.x 21265906

42. Briggs A, Claxton K, Sculpher M. Decision modelling for health economic evaluation. New York: Oxford University Press; 2006.

43. Sassi F. Taxing sugar. BMJ. 2016;352:h6904. doi: 10.1136/bmj.h6904 26739899

44. Wall J, Mhurchu CN, Blakely T, Rodgers A, Wilton J. Effectiveness of monetary incentives in modifying dietary behavior: a review of randomized, controlled trials. Nutr Rev. 2006;64(12):518–31. 17274494

45. An R. Effectiveness of subsidies in promoting healthy food purchases and consumption: a review of field experiments. Public Health Nutr. 2013;16(7):1215–28. doi: 10.1017/S1368980012004715 23122423

46. Moretto N, Kendall E, Whitty J, Byrnes J, Hills AP, Gordon L, et al. Yes, the government should tax soft drinks: findings from a citizens’ jury in Australia. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014;11(3):2456–71. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110302456 24583829

47. Madden D. The poverty effects of a ‘fat-tax’ in Ireland. Health Econ. 2015;24(1):104–21. doi: 10.1002/hec.3006 24132985

48. Veerman JL, Cobiac LJ. Removing the GST exemption for fresh fruits and vegetables could cost lives. Med J Aust. 2013;199(8):534.

49. Stuckler D, Nestle M. Big Food, food systems, and global health. PLoS Med. 2012;9(6):e1001242. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001242 22723746

50. Thow AM, Snowdon W, Labonté R, Gleeson D, Stuckler D, Hattersley L, et al. Will the next generation of preferential trade and investment agreements undermine prevention of noncommunicable diseases? A prospective policy analysis of the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. Health Policy. 2015;119(1):88–96. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2014.08.002 25217839

51. Cobiac LJ, Veerman L, Vos T. The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in developing nutrition policy. Annu Rev Nutr. 2013;33:373–93. doi: 10.1146/annurev-nutr-071812-161133 23642205