Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals
Autoři:
Nicole Lowres aff001; Jake Olivier aff002; Tze-Fan Chao aff003; Shih-Ann Chen aff003; Yi Chen aff005; Axel Diederichsen aff007; David A. Fitzmaurice aff006; Juan Jose Gomez-Doblas aff009; Joseph Harbison aff011; Jeff S. Healey aff013; F. D. Richard Hobbs aff014; Femke Kaasenbrood aff015; William Keen aff016; Vivian W. Lee aff017; Jes S. Lindholt aff018; Gregory Y. H. Lip aff019; Georges H. Mairesse aff021; Jonathan Mant aff022; Julie W. Martin aff016; Enrique Martín-Rioboó aff023; David D. McManus aff025; Javier Muñiz aff027; Thomas Münzel aff029; Juliet Nakamya aff013; Lis Neubeck aff032; Jessica J. Orchard aff001; Luis Ángel Pérula de Torres aff033; Marco Proietti aff019; F. Russell Quinn aff037; Andrea K. Roalfe aff014; Roopinder K. Sandhu aff038; Renate B. Schnabel aff039; Breda Smyth aff041; Apurv Soni aff042; Robert Tieleman aff043; Jiguang Wang aff005; Philipp S. Wild aff031; Bryan P. Yan aff049; Ben Freedman aff001
Působiště autorů:
Heart Research Institute, Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia
aff001; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
aff002; Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
aff003; Institute of Clinical Medicine and Cardiovascular Research Center, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
aff004; The Shanghai Institute of Hypertension, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai, China
aff005; Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
aff006; Department of Cardiology and Centre of Individualized Medicine of Arterial Disease, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
aff007; Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
aff008; Servicio de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Victoria, Malaga, Spain
aff009; CIBERCV, Malaga, Spain
aff010; Discipline of Medical Gerontology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
aff011; The Irish Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Dublin, Ireland
aff012; Population Health Research Institute, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
aff013; Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
aff014; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
aff015; Kaiser Permanente San Diego, San Diego, United States of America
aff016; School of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
aff017; Department of Vascular Surgery, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
aff018; Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science, University of Liverpool and Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom
aff019; Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
aff020; Department of Cardiology, Cliniques du Sud Luxembourg, Vivalia, Arlon, Belgium
aff021; Primary Care Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
aff022; University of Córdoba, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Unit of Family and Community Medicine of Córdoba, UGC Poniente, Córdoba and Guadalquivir Sanitary District, Córdoba, Spain
aff023; Instituto Maimónides de Investigación Biomédica de Córdoba (IMIBIC), Córdoba, Spain
aff024; Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, United States of America
aff025; UMass Memorial Medical Center, Worcester, United States of America
aff026; Universidade da Coruña, A Coruña, Spain
aff027; Instituto Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud e Instituto de Investigación Biomédica de A Coruña, CIBERCV, A Coruña, Spain
aff028; Center of Cardiology I, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
aff029; Center for Translational Vascular Biology (CTVB), University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
aff030; DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), partner site RhineMain, Mainz, Germany
aff031; School of Health and Social Care, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland
aff032; Teaching Unit of Family and Community Medicine of Córdoba, Córdoba and Guadalquivir Sanitary District. Instituto Maimónides de Investigación Biomédica de Córdoba (IMIBIC), Córdoba, Spain
aff033; Reina Sofía University Hospital, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain
aff034; Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
aff035; Geriatric Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
aff036; Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
aff037; Cardiac Electrophysiology, Division of Cardiology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
aff038; University Heart Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
aff039; DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Hamburg/Kiel/Luebeck, Hamburg, Germany
aff040; Department of Public Health Medicine, HSE West, Galway, Ireland
aff041; Clinical and Population Health Research, Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, United States of America
aff042; Department of Cardiology, Martini Hospital Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
aff043; Department of Cardiology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
aff044; Preventive Cardiology and Preventive Medicine, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
aff045; Center for Cardiology, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
aff046; Center for Translational Vascular Biology (CTVB), University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
aff047; Center for Thrombosis and Hemostasis, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz, Mainz, Germany
aff048; Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
aff049; Prince of Wales Hospital, Hong Kong SAR, China
aff050
Vyšlo v časopise:
Estimated stroke risk, yield, and number needed to screen for atrial fibrillation detected through single time screening: a multicountry patient-level meta-analysis of 141,220 screened individuals. PLoS Med 16(9): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002903
Kategorie:
Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002903
Souhrn
Background
The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata.
Methods and findings
A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%–1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%–0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60–64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples.
Conclusions
People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations.
Klíčová slova:
Age groups – Ischemic stroke – Screening guidelines – Health screening – Cost-effectiveness analysis – Electrocardiography – Age distribution – Atrial fibrillation
Zdroje
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