Contact Heterogeneity, Rather Than Transmission Efficiency, Limits the Emergence and Spread of Canine Influenza Virus

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Influenza virus infects a range of vertebrate hosts, including domesticated animals as well as humans. Some of the most serious influenza pandemics in humans have involved host range shifts, when an influenza virus jumps from one host species to another. Importantly, however, host range shifts do not always cause pandemics. Rather, epidemiological patterns tend to be unpredictable in new host species, causing disease patterns that change over space and time. In this paper, we analyze epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of canine influenza virus (CIV), which jumped to dogs in the late 1990s from an equine strain (EIV) prevalent in horses. We show that the epidemiology and evolution of CIV is strongly influenced by heterogeneous patterns of infectious contact among dogs in the US. A few large populations in metropolitan animal shelters serve as reservoirs for CIV, but the virus cannot be maintained for long in smaller facilities or in the companion dog population without input from the larger shelters, which represent disease hotspots. These hotspot dynamics give a clear picture of what can happen in the time between the beginning of a host range shift and the onset of a possible pandemic, allowing more targeted strategies for control and eradication.

Vyšlo v časopise: Contact Heterogeneity, Rather Than Transmission Efficiency, Limits the Emergence and Spread of Canine Influenza Virus. PLoS Pathog 10(10): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004455
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004455

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