Predicting Live Birth, Preterm Delivery, and Low Birth Weight in Infants Born from In Vitro Fertilisation: A Prospective Study of 144,018 Treatment Cycles

English version České info

Background:
The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown.

Methods and Findings:
We utilised the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database to examine the predictors of live birth in all in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles undertaken in the UK between 2003 and 2007 (n = 144,018). We examined the potential clinical utility of a validated model that pre-dated the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) as compared to a novel model. For those treatment cycles that resulted in a live singleton birth (n = 24,226), we determined the associates of potential risk factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. The overall rate of at least one live birth was 23.4 per 100 cycles (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.2–23.7). In multivariable models the odds of at least one live birth decreased with increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, a greater number of previously unsuccessful IVF treatments, use of own oocytes, necessity for a second or third treatment cycle, or if it was not unexplained infertility. The association of own versus donor oocyte with reduced odds of live birth strengthened with increasing age of the mother. A previous IVF live birth increased the odds of future success (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46–1.71) more than that of a previous spontaneous live birth (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.99–1.24); p-value for difference in estimate <0.001. Use of ICSI increased the odds of live birth, and male causes of infertility were associated with reduced odds of live birth only in couples who had not received ICSI. Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration; calibration was markedly improved in the novel compared to the established model. Preterm birth and low birth weight were increased if oocyte donation was required and ICSI was not used. Risk of macrosomia increased with advancing maternal age and a history of previous live births. Infertility due to cervical problems was associated with increased odds of all three outcomes—preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia.

Conclusions:
Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF.

: Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Vyšlo v časopise: Predicting Live Birth, Preterm Delivery, and Low Birth Weight in Infants Born from In Vitro Fertilisation: A Prospective Study of 144,018 Treatment Cycles. PLoS Med 8(1): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000386
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000386

Souhrn

Background:
The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown.

Zdroje

1. Nyboe AndersenA

GoossensV

BhattacharyaS

FerrarettiAP

KupkaMS

2009 Assisted reproductive technology and intrauterine inseminations in Europe, 2005: results generated from European registers by ESHRE: ESHRE. The European IVF Monitoring Programme (EIM), for the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE). Hum Reprod 24 1267 1287

2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ASfRM, Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology 2008 2006 Assisted reproductive technology success rates: National summary and fertility clinic reports. Atlanta: CDC. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/art/art2006/index.htm. Accessed: 30 November 2010

3. Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing 2006 Report of the independent review of assisted reproductive technologies. Available: http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/ART-Report. Accessed: 30 November 2010

4. LeushuisE

van der SteegJW

SteuresP

BossuytPMM

EijkemansMJC

2009 Prediction models in reproductive medicine: A critical appraisal. Hum Reprod Update 15 537 552

5. StolwijkAM

ZielhuisGA

HamiltonCJCM

StraatmanH

HollandersJMG

1996 Pregnancy: Prognostic models for the probability of achieving an ongoing pregnancy after in-vitro fertilization and the importance of testing their predictive value. Hum Reprod 11 2298 2303

6. StolwijkAM

StraatmanH

ZielhuisGA

JansenCA

BraatDD

1998 External validation of prognostic models for ongoing pregnancy after in- vitro fertilization. Hum Reprod 13 3542 3549

7. TempletonA

MorrisJK

ParslowW

1996 Factors that affect outcome of in-vitro fertilisation treatment. Lancet 348 1402 1406

8. HunaultCC

EijkemansMJ

PietersMH

te VeldeER

HabbemaJD

2002 A prediction model for selecting patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for elective single embryo transfer. Fertil Steril 77 725 732

9. HunaultCC

te VeldeER

WeimaSM

MacklonNS

EijkemansMJ

2007 A case study of the applicability of a prediction model for the selection of patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for single embryo transfer in another center. Fertil Steril 87 1314 1321

10. EversJL

2002 Female subfertility. Lancet 360 151 159

11. WHO 2002 Current practices and controversies in assisted reproduction: Report of a WHO Meeting.

VayenaE

RowePJ

GriffinPD

Medical, Ethical and Social Aspects of Assisted Reproduction Geneva WHO Publications 381 396

12. MinJK

BrehenySA

MacLachlanV

HealyDL

2004 What is the most relevant standard of success in assisted reproduction? The singleton, term gestation, live birth rate per cycle initiated: The BESST endpoint for assisted reproduction. Hum Reprod 19 3 7

13. BarkerDJ

Fetal and Infant origins of Adult Disease. London 1992 Publisher British Medical JournalISBN 978-0-7279-0743-1

14. JacksonRA

GibsonKA

WuYW

CroughanMS

2004 Perinatal outcomes in singletons following in vitro fertilization: A meta-analysis. Obstet Gynecol 103 551 563

15. AllenVM

WilsonRD

CheungA

2006 Pregnancy outcomes after assisted reproductive technology. J Obstet Gynaecol Can 28 220 250

16. DraperES

KurinczukJJ

AbramsKR

ClarkeM

1999 Assessment of separate contributions to perinatal mortality of infertility history and treatment: A case-control analysis. Lancet 353 1746 1749

17. RomundstadLB

RomundstadPR

SundeA

von DuringV

SkjaervenR

2008 Effects of technology or maternal factors on perinatal outcome after assisted fertilisation: A population-based cohort study. Lancet 372 737 743

18. BassoO

BairdDD

2003 Infertility and preterm delivery, birthweight, and caesarean section: A study within the Danish National Birth Cohort. Hum Reprod 18 2478 2484

19. NygrenKG

FinnstromO

KallenB

OlaussonPO

2007 Population-based Swedish studies of outcomes after in vitro fertilisation. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand 86 774 782

20. von ElmE

AltmanDG

EggerM

PocockSJ

GøtzschePC

2007 The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement: Guidelines for reporting observational studies. Lancet 370 1453 1457

21. DeLongER

DeLongDM

Clarke-PearsonDL

1988 Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: A nonparametric approach. Biometrics 44 837 845

22. PencinaMJ

D'AgostinoRBSr

D'AgostinoRBJr

VasanRS

2008 Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: From area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond. Stat Med 27 157 172

23. SmeenkJMJ

StolwijkAM

KremerJAM

BraatDDM

2000 External validation of the Templeton model for predicting success after IVF. Hum Reprod 15 1065 1068

24. PalermoG

JorisH

DevroeyP

Van SteirteghemAC

1992 Pregnancies after intracytoplasmic injection of single spermatozoon into an oocyte. Lancet 340 17 18

25. Mook-KanamoriDO

SteegersEA

EilersPH

RaatH

HofmanA

2010 Risk factors and outcomes associated with first-trimester fetal growth restriction. JAMA 303 527 534

26. SmithGC

SmithMF

McNayMB

FlemingJE

1998 First-trimester growth and the risk of low birth weight. N Engl J Med 339 1817 1822

27. BukowskiR

SmithGCS

MaloneFD

BallRH

NybergDA

2007 Fetal growth in early pregnancy and risk of delivering low birth weight infant: Prospective cohort study. BMJ 334 836-

28. ColditzGA

WillettWC

StampferMJ

RosnerB

SpeizerFE

1987 Menopause and the risk of coronary heart disease in women. N Engl J Med 316 1105 1110

29. van der SchouwYT

van der GraafY

SteyerbergEW

EijkemansJC

BangaJD

1996 Age at menopause as a risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. Lancet 347 714 718

30. CooleyM

BakalovV

BondyCA

2003 Lipid profiles in women with 45,X vs 46,XX primary ovarian failure. JAMA 290 2127 2128

31. RedmanCW

SargentIL

2003 Pre-eclampsia, the placenta and the maternal systemic inflammatory response–A review. Placenta 24 Suppl A S21 27

32. BodriD

VernaeveV

FiguerasF

VidalR

GuillenJJ

2006 Oocyte donation in patients with Turner's syndrome: A successful technique but with an accompanying high risk of hypertensive disorders during pregnancy. Hum Reprod 21 829 832

33. PaulsonRJ

BoostanfarR

SaadatP

TourgemanDE

2002 Pregnancy in the sixth decade of life: Obstetric outcomes in women of advanced reproductive age. JAMA 288 2320 2323

34. VillamorE

CnattingiusCnattingius

Interpregnancy weight change and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: A population-based study. Lancet 368 1164 1170

35. MorrisonJJ

RennieJM

MiltonPJ

1995 Neonatal respiratory morbidity and mode of delivery at term: Influence of timing of elective caesarean section. Br J Obstet Gynaecol 102 101 106