Reassessment of HIV-1 Acute Phase Infectivity: Accounting for Heterogeneity and Study Design with Simulated Cohorts
Using simulated cohorts that account for previously unmeasured bias, Steve Bellan and colleagues provide new estimates of the duration and relative infectivity of the HIV-1 acute phase based on data from the retrospective cohort of serodiscordant couples in Rakai, Uganda.
Vyšlo v časopise:
Reassessment of HIV-1 Acute Phase Infectivity: Accounting for Heterogeneity and Study Design with Simulated Cohorts. PLoS Med 12(3): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001801
Kategorie:
Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001801
Souhrn
Using simulated cohorts that account for previously unmeasured bias, Steve Bellan and colleagues provide new estimates of the duration and relative infectivity of the HIV-1 acute phase based on data from the retrospective cohort of serodiscordant couples in Rakai, Uganda.
Zdroje
1. Cohen MS, Chen YQ, McCauley M, Gamble T, Hosseinipour MC, et al. (2011) Prevention of HIV-1 infection with early antiretroviral therapy. N Engl J Med 365: 493–505. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1105243 21767103
2. Granich RM, Gilks CF, Dye C, De Cock KM, Williams BG (2009) Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model. Lancet 373: 48–57. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61697-9 19038438
3. Tanser F, Bärnighausen T, Grapsa E, Zaidi J, Newell M-L (2013) High coverage of ART associated with decline in risk of HIV acquisition in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Science 339: 966–971. doi: 10.1126/science.1228160 23430656
4. Cohen MS, Dye C, Fraser C, Miller WC, Powers KA, et al. (2012) HIV treatment as prevention: debate and commentary—will early infection compromise treatment-as-prevention strategies? PLoS Med 9: e1001232. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001232 22802728
5. Fiebig EW, Wright DJ, Rawal BD, Garrett PE, Schumacher RT, et al. (2003) Dynamics of HIV viremia and antibody seroconversion in plasma donors: implications for diagnosis and staging of primary HIV infection. AIDS 17: 1871–1879. 12960819
6. Attia S, Egger M, Mueller M, Zwahlen M, Low N (2009) Sexual transmission of HIV according to viral load and antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis. AIDS 23: 1397–1404. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832b7dca 19381076
7. Lingappa JR, Hughes JP, Wang RS, Baeten JM, Celum C, et al. (2010) Estimating the impact of plasma HIV-1 RNA reductions on heterosexual HIV-1 transmission risk. PLoS ONE 5: e12598. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012598 20856886
8. Cohen MS, Shaw GM, McMichael AJ, Haynes BF (2011) Acute HIV-1 infection. N Engl J Med 364: 1943–1954. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1011874 21591946
9. Ma Z-M, Stone M, Piatak M, Schweighardt B, Haigwood NL, et al. (2009) High specific infectivity of plasma virus from the pre-ramp-up and ramp-up stages of acute simian immunodeficiency virus infection. J Virol 83: 3288–3297. doi: 10.1128/JVI.02423-08 19129448
10. Eaton JW, Hallett TB, Garnett GP (2011) Concurrent sexual partnerships and primary HIV infection: a critical interaction. AIDS Behav 15: 687–692. doi: 10.1007/s10461-010-9787-8 20890654
11. Zhang X, Zhong L, Romero-Severson E, Alam SJ, Henry CJ, et al. (2012) Episodic HIV risk behavior can greatly amplify HIV prevalence and the fraction of transmissions from acute HIV infection. Stat Commun Infect Dis 4: 1–21.
12. Romero-Severson EO, Alam SJ, Volz E, Koopman J (2013) Acute-stage transmission of HIV: effect of volatile contact rates. Epidemiology 24: 516–521. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e318294802e 23689754
13. Williams BG (2011) How important is the acute phase in HIV epidemiology? Cornell University Library. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.2767v1. Accessed 25 May 2014.
14. Grassly NC, Fraser C (2008) Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. Nat Rev Microbiol 6: 477–487. doi: 10.1038/nrmicro1845 18533288
15. Eaton JW, Hallett TB (2014) Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 111: 16202–16207. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1323007111 25313068
16. Powers KA, Kretzschmar ME, Miller WC, Cohen MS (2014) Impact of early-stage HIV transmission on treatment as prevention. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 111: 15867–15868. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1418496111 25368195
17. Wawer MJ, Gray RH, Sewankambo NK, Serwadda D, Li XB, et al. (2005) Rates of HIV-1 transmission per coital act, by stage of HIV-1 infection, in Rakai, Uganda. J Infect Dis 191: 1403–1409. doi: 10.1086/429411 15809897
18. Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM, Fraser C (2008) HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection. J Infect Dis 198: 687–693. doi: 10.1086/590501 18662132
19. Powers KA, Ghani AC, Miller WC, Hoffman IF, Pettifor AE, et al. (2011) The role of acute and early HIV infection in the spread of HIV and implications for transmission prevention strategies in Lilongwe, Malawi: a modelling study. Lancet 378: 256–268. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60842-8 21684591
20. Abu-Raddad LJ, Longini IM Jr (2008) No HIV stage is dominant in driving the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 22: 1055–1061. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3282f8af84 18520349
21. Hayes RJ, White RG (2006) Amplified HIV transmission during early-stage infection. J Infect Dis 193: 604–605. 16425144
22. Salomon JA, Hogan DR (2008) Evaluating the impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV transmission. AIDS 22 (Suppl 1): S149–S159. doi: 10.1097/01.aids.0000327636.82542.87 18664947
23. Xiridou M, Geskus R, de Wit J, Coutinho R, Kretzschmar M (2004) Primary HIV infection as source of HIV transmission within steady and casual partnerships among homosexual men. AIDS 18: 1311–1320. 15362664
24. Jacquez JA, Koopman JS, Simon CP, Longini IM (1994) Role of the primary infection in epidemics of HIV infection in gay cohorts. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 7: 1169–1184. 7932084
25. Pinkerton SD, Abramson PR (1996) Implications of increased infectivity in early-stage HIV infection: application of a Bernoulli-process model of HIV transmission. Eval Rev 20: 516–540. 10183259
26. Koopman JS, Jacquez JA, Welch GW, Simon CP, Foxman B, et al. (1997) The role of early HIV infection in the spread of HIV through populations. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr Hum Retrovirol 14: 249–258. 9117458
27. Kretzschmar M, Dietz K (1998) The effect of pair formation and variable infectivity on the spread of an infection without recovery. Math Biosci 148: 83–113. 9597826
28. Pinkerton SD (2007) How many sexually-acquired HIV infections in the USA are due to acute-phase HIV transmission? AIDS 21: 1625–1629. 17630558
29. Prabhu VS, Hutchinson AB, Farnham PG, Sansom SL (2009) Sexually acquired HIV infections in the United States due to acute-phase HIV transmission: an update. AIDS 23: 1792–1794. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832e7d04 19684485
30. Branson BM (2010) The future of HIV testing. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 55 (Suppl 2): S102–S105. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181fbca44 21406978
31. R Development Core Team (2014) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
32. Robb ML (2012) Viral dynamics and immune response in acute infection and their impact on viral set-point [abstract]. PL02.02. AIDS Vaccine 2012; 9–12 September 2012; Boston, Massachusetts, US. Available: http://www.aidsvaxwebcasts.org/console/player/19054?mediaType=audio&. Accessed 16 May 2014.
33. Bellan SE, Fiorella KJ, Melesse DY, Getz WM, Williams BG, et al. (2013) Extra-couple HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study of survey data. Lancet 6736: 1–9. doi: 10.1109/EMBC.2013.6611102 24111289
34. (2000) Time from HIV-1 seroconversion to AIDS and death before widespread use of highly-active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative re-analysis. Collaborative Group on AIDS Incubation and HIV Survival including the CASCADE EU Concerted Action. Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe. Lancet 355: 1131–1137. 10791375
35. Grabowski MK, Lessler J, Nalugoda F, Reynolds SJ, Ssekubugu R, et al. (2014) Introduction of HIV into stable heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda before and after ART [abstract]. Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections 2014; 3–6 Mar 2014; Boston, MA, US.
36. Porter L, Hao L, Bishai D, Serwadda D, Wawer MJ, et al. (2004) HIV status and union dissolution in sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Rakai, Uganda. Demography 41: 465–482. 15461010
37. Toni T, Welch D, Strelkowa N, Ipsen A, Stumpf MP (2009) Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems. J R Soc Interface 6: 187–202. 19205079
38. Eaton JW, Johnson LF, Salomon JA, Barnighausen T, Bendavid E, et al. (2012) HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa. PLoS Med 9: e1001245. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001245 22802730
39. Kretzschmar ME, Schim van der Loeff MF, Birrell PJ, De Angelis D, Coutinho RA (2013) Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110: 15538–15543. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1301801110 24009342
40. Nolan S, Wood E (2014) End of the debate about antiretroviral treatment initiation. Lancet Infect Dis 14: 258–259. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70329-3 24602843
41. Owen SM (2012) Testing for acute HIV infection: implications for treatment as prevention. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 7: 125–130. doi: 10.1097/COH.0b013e3283506613 22314506
42. Cori A, Ayles H, Beyers N, Schaap A, Floyd S, et al. (2014) HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model. PLoS ONE 9: e84511. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0084511 24454728
43. Bellan SE, Pulliam JRC, Scott JC, Dushoff J (2012) How to make epidemiological training infectious. PLoS Biol 10: e1001295. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001295 22509129
44. Williams BG, Granich R, Dye C (2011) Role of acute infection in HIV transmission. Lancet 378: 1913–1915. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(11)61833-3 22137836
45. Nagelkerke NJD, Arora P, Jha P, Williams B, McKinnon L, et al. (2014) The rise and fall of HIV in high-prevalence countries: a challenge for mathematical modeling. PLoS Comput Biol 10: e1003459. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003459 24626088
46. Bello G, Simwaka B, Ndhlovu T, Salaniponi F, Hallett TB (2011) Evidence for changes in behaviour leading to reductions in HIV prevalence in urban Malawi. Sex Transm Infect 87: 296–300. doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.043786 21429896
47. Alam SJ, Zhang X, Romero-Severson EO, Henry C, Zhong L, et al. (2013) Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data. Epidemics 5: 44–55. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003 23438430
48. Brenner BG, Roger M, Routy J-P, Moisi D, Ntemgwa M, et al. (2007) High rates of forward transmission events after acute/early HIV-1 infection. J Infect Dis 195: 951–959. 17330784
49. Volz EM, Ionides E, Romero-Severson EO, Brandt M-G, Mokotoff E, et al. (2013) HIV-1 transmission during early infection in men who have sex with men: a phylodynamic analysis. PLoS Med 10: e1001568. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001568 24339751
50. Romero-Severson E, Skar H, Bulla I, Albert J, Leitner T (2014) Timing and order of transmission events is not directly reflected in a pathogen phylogeny. Mol Biol Evol 31: 2472–2482. doi: 10.1093/molbev/msu179 24874208
51. Robinson K, Fyson N, Cohen T, Fraser C, Colijn C (2013) How the dynamics and structure of sexual contact networks shape pathogen phylogenies. PLoS Comput Biol 9: e1003105. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003105 23818840
52. Grabowski MK, Redd AD (2014) Molecular tools for studying HIV transmission in sexual networks. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 9: 126–133. doi: 10.1097/COH.0000000000000040 24384502
53. Rasmussen DA, Volz EM, Koelle K (2014) phylodynamic inference for structured epidemiological models. PLoS Comput Biol 10: e1003570. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003570 24743590
54. Barnabas R, Webb E (2011) The role of coinfections in HIV epidemic trajectory and positive prevention: a systematic review and meta-analysis. AIDS 25: 1559–1573. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283491e3e 21633287
55. Grinsztejn B, Hosseinipour MC, Ribaudo HJ, Swindells S, Eron J, et al. (2014) Effects of early versus delayed initiation of antiretroviral treatment on clinical outcomes of HIV-1 infection: results from the phase 3 HPTN 052 randomised controlled trial. Lancet Infect Dis: 281–290. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70692-3 24602844
Štítky
Interné lekárstvoČlánok vyšiel v časopise
PLOS Medicine
2015 Číslo 3
- Statinová intolerance
- Očkování proti virové hemoragické horečce Ebola experimentální vakcínou rVSVDG-ZEBOV-GP
- Co dělat při intoleranci statinů?
- Pleiotropní účinky statinů na kardiovaskulární systém
- DESATORO PRE PRAX: Aktuálne odporúčanie ESPEN pre nutričný manažment u pacientov s COVID-19
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
- CD47 Agonist Peptides Induce Programmed Cell Death in Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia B Cells via PLCγ1 Activation: Evidence from Mice and Humans
- Paying Physicians to Prescribe Generic Drugs and Follow-On Biologics in the United States
- Ultra-Sensitive Detection of by Amplification of Multi-Copy Subtelomeric Targets
- Sugar Industry Influence on the Scientific Agenda of the National Institute of Dental Research’s 1971 National Caries Program: A Historical Analysis of Internal Documents