Environmental Drivers of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States

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Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes annual outbreaks of respiratory disease every winter in temperate climates, which can be severe particularly among infants. In the United States, RSV activity begins each autumn in Florida and appears to spread from the southeast to the northwest. Using data on hospitalizations and laboratory tests for RSV, we show that the timing of epidemics is associated with a variety of climatic factors, including temperature, vapor pressure, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Furthermore, using a dynamic model, we show that seasonal variation in the transmission rate of RSV can be correlated with the amplitude and timing of variation in PET, which is a measure of demand for water from the atmosphere. States with colder, drier weather and a large seasonal swing in PET tended to experience an alternating pattern of “early-big” RSV epidemics one year followed by a “late-small” epidemic the next year, which our model was able to reproduce based on the interaction between susceptible and infectious individuals. However, we cannot fully explain why epidemics begin in Florida. Being able to understand and predict the timing of RSV activity is important for optimizing the delivery of immunoprophylaxis to high-risk individuals.

Vyšlo v časopise: Environmental Drivers of the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States. PLoS Pathog 11(1): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004591
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004591

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