Determinants of Influenza Transmission in South East Asia: Insights from a Household Cohort Study in Vietnam

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Influenza causes an estimated three to five million severe illnesses worldwide each year. In order to guide control policies it is important to determine the key risk factors for transmission. This is often done by studying transmission in households but in the past, analysis of such data has suffered from important simplifying assumptions (for example not being able to account for the effect of biological markers of protection like pre-season antibody titers). We have developed new statistical methods that address these limitations and applied them to a large household cohort study conducted in 2007–2010 in Vietnam. By comparing a large range of model variants, we have obtained unique insights into the patterns and determinants of transmission of seasonal (H1N1, H3N2, B) and pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza in South East Asia. This includes estimating the proportion of cases attributed to household transmission, the average household transmission probability, the protection afforded by pre-season HI titers, and the effect of age on infection risk after correcting for pre-season HI titers.

Vyšlo v časopise: Determinants of Influenza Transmission in South East Asia: Insights from a Household Cohort Study in Vietnam. PLoS Pathog 10(8): e32767. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004310
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1004310

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