#PAGE_PARAMS# #ADS_HEAD_SCRIPTS# #MICRODATA#

Is half the world’s population really below ‘replacement-rate’?


Autoři: Stuart Gietel-Basten aff001;  Sergei Scherbov aff002
Působiště autorů: Division of Social Science, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, P.R. China aff001;  World Population Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria aff002
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224985

Souhrn

A perennial activity of demographers is to estimate the percentage of the world’s population which is above or below the ‘replacement rate of fertility’ [RRF]. However, most attempts to do so have been based upon, at best, oversimplified, or at worst, simply incorrect assumptions about what RRF actually is. The objective of this paper is to calculate the proportion of the world’s population living in countries with observed period total fertility rates [TFR] below the respective calculated RRF, rather than the commonly used measure of 2.1. While the differences between comparing TFR to 2.1 or RRF are relatively modest in many periods when considering populations at the national level, a significant difference can be observed in the near future based upon India’s fertility and mortality trajectories. Our exercise represents a means of ‘correcting the record’ using the most up-to-date evidence and using the correct protocol.

Klíčová slova:

Sex ratio – Children – Child health – India – Indonesia – Sierra Leone – Fertility rates – Tamil people


Zdroje

1. Wilson C. Fertility below replacement level. Science. 2004;304: 207–209.

2. Pison G, Wilson C. More than half of the global population lives where fertility is below replacement level. Population and Societies. 2004;405: 1–4.

3. Myrskylä M, Kohler H-P, Billari FC. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature. 2009;460: 741–743. doi: 10.1038/nature08230 19661915

4. Keyfitz N, Caswell H. Applied Mathematical Demography (Third Edition). Dordrecht: Springer; 2005.

5. UNPD. World Population Prospects: Key Findings and Advance Tables [Internet]. United Nations Population Division; 2017. Report No.: ESA/P/WP/248. Available: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf

6. UNPD. The end of high fertility is near [Internet]. United Nations Population Division; 2017. Report No.: 2017/3. Available: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/PopFacts_2017-3_The-end-of-high-fertility.pdf

7. Frejka T. Half the world’s population reaching below replacement fertility. In: N-IUSSP [Internet]. 4 Dec 2017 [cited 21 Mar 2019]. Available: http://www.niussp.org/article/half-the-worlds-population-reaching-below-replacement-fertility/

8. Chamie J. Replacement Fertility Declines Worldwide. In: YaleGlobal Online [Internet]. 2018 [cited 26 Mar 2019]. Available: https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/replacement-fertility-declines-worldwide

9. Murray CJL, Callender CSKH, Kulikoff XR, Srinivasan V, Abate D, Abate KH, et al. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet; 2018;392: 1995–2051. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5 30496106

10. Gallagher J. “Remarkable” decline in fertility rates. BBC. BBC News; 9 Nov 2018. Available: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46118103. Accessed 26 Mar 2019.

11. Smallwood S, Chamberlain J. Replacement fertility, what has it been and what does it mean? Popul Trends. 2005; 16–27. 15832599

12. Espenshade TJ, Guzman JC, Westoff CF. The surprising global variation in replacement fertility. Popul Res Pol Rev. 2004;22: 575–583.

13. UNPD. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York, NY: United Nations Population Division; 2017.

14. Wu P, Wu Y, Wu C. Research on Fertility Policy in China: The Relative Necessity for Reform Among the Different Provinces. Soc Indic Res. 2018;135: 751–767.

15. James KS. India’s demographic change: opportunities and challenges. Science. 2011;333: 576–580. doi: 10.1126/science.1207969 21798938

16. ORGCC. Sample Registration System Statistical Report 2016 (Field work period: 2017) [Internet]. Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner; 2017. Available: http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics/SRS_Reports__2016.html

17. ORGCC. SRS Based Life Table 2012–16 [Internet]. SRS Based Life Table 2012–16. {Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India}; 2017. Available: http://www.censusindia.gov.in/Vital_Statistics/SRS_Life_Table/Srs_life_Table_2012-16.html

18. Govt. of India. State/UT wise Aadhaar Saturation. In: Unique Identification Authority of India [Internet]. 2017. Available: https://uidai.gov.in/images/state_wise_aadhaar_saturation_as_on_22052017.pdf

19. Striessnig E, Lutz W. Can below-replacement fertility be desirable? Empirica. 2013;40(3): 409–25.

20. Gietel-Basten S. The population problem in Pacific Asia. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 2019.

21. Dorling S, Gietel-Basten S. Why demography matters. Cambridge, UK: Polity Press; 2018.


Článok vyšiel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 12
Najčítanejšie tento týždeň
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
Kurzy

Zvýšte si kvalifikáciu online z pohodlia domova

Aktuální možnosti diagnostiky a léčby litiáz
nový kurz
Autori: MUDr. Tomáš Ürge, PhD.

Všetky kurzy
Prihlásenie
Zabudnuté heslo

Zadajte e-mailovú adresu, s ktorou ste vytvárali účet. Budú Vám na ňu zasielané informácie k nastaveniu nového hesla.

Prihlásenie

Nemáte účet?  Registrujte sa

#ADS_BOTTOM_SCRIPTS#