#PAGE_PARAMS# #ADS_HEAD_SCRIPTS# #MICRODATA#

Seasonality of deaths with respect to age and cause in Chitral District Pakistan


Autoři: Muhammad Asif aff001;  Khalid Nawaz aff001;  Zafar Zaheer aff003;  Helene Thygesen aff004;  Amani Abu-Shaheen aff005;  Muhammad Riaz aff001
Působiště autorů: Department of Statistics, University of Malakand, Dir (L), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan aff001;  Department of Statistics, Shaheed Banazir University, Sheringal, Pakistan aff002;  Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan aff003;  Department of Conservation, Hamilton, New Zealand aff004;  Research Centre, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia aff005
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(12)
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225994

Souhrn

Background

Seasonal variability in mortality has been studied in various regions globally. Proper evaluation of seasonally fluctuating mortality is important to establish effective public health measures. We investigated the overall, age-specific, and cause-specific seasonality of deaths in Chitral District in Pakistan.

Method

Data on 2577 deaths were provided by the Agha Khan Health Support Program. Seasonal mortality patterns concerning age and causes were examined using the X-12 ARIMA pseudo-additive decomposition method.

Results

Of the total deceased, 59.6% were males. The proportion of deceased males was significantly higher than the female (40.4%, p< 0.001). The average age at death was 57.7 years (SD = 28.7). On average, approximately 43 deaths occurred each month. More than 10% of the deaths occurred in children less than 5-years-of-age. Among all the causes of death, the most frequent was cardiovascular disease (n = 666, 25.8%) followed by respiratory disease (n = 482, 18.7%). Significant seasonality in the overall deaths was evident, with a peak in winter. Deaths in people ≥ 55-years-of-age were significantly seasonal and peaked in winter. Deaths due to cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney related diseases were also significantly seasonal with winter peaks. Further, deaths due to external causes were significantly seasonal with summer peak.

Conclusion

In the winter season, all-cause, except external, and age-specific mortality peaks in Chitral District, Pakistan. Deaths due to external causes and cardiovascular, respiratory, and kidney related diseases were significant seasonal effects.

Klíčová slova:

Death rates – Respiratory infections – Seasons – Kidneys – Winter – Summer – Cardiovascular diseases – Pakistan


Zdroje

1. Fares A. Factors influencing the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases. Int J Prev Med. 2013;4(2):128–132. 23543865

2. Rau R. Seasonality in Human Mortality: A Demographic Approach. Springer Science & Business Media; 2006 Nov 24.

3. Gorjanc ML, Flanders WD, VanDerslice J, Hersh J, Malilay J. Effects of temperature and snowfall on mortality in Pennsylvania. American Journal of Epidemiology. 1999;149(12):1152–1160. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009770 10369510

4. van Rossum CT, Shipley MJ, Hemingway H, Grobbee DE, Mackenbach JP, Marmot MG. Seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality: are there high-risk groups? 25-year follow-up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2001;30(5): 1109–1116. doi: 10.1093/ije/30.5.1109 11689530

5. Group TE. Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. The Lancet. 1997;349(9062): 1341–1346.

6. McKee M, Sanderson C, Chenet L, Vassin S, Shkolnikov V. Seasonal variation in mortality in Moscow. Journal of Public Health. 1998;20(3): 268–274

7. Gemmell I, Macloni P, Buddy F, Dikinston GJ, Watt G. Seasonal variation in mortality in Scotland. International Journal of Epidemiology. 2000;29: 274–279. doi: 10.1093/ije/29.2.274 10817125

8. Hernandéz M, García-Moro C. Seasonal distribution of mortality in Barcelona (1983–1985). Antropologia portuguesa. 1986–87; 4–5: 211–223

9. Kunst A, Looman C, Mackenbach J. The Decline in Winter Excess Mortality in the Netherlands. International Journal of Epidemiology. 1991; 20: 971–977 doi: 10.1093/ije/20.4.971 1800438

10. Trudeau R. Monthly and daily patterns of death. Health Reports-Statistics Canada. 1997;9: 43–52

11. Nakaji S, Parodi S, Fontana V, Umeda T, Suzuki K, Sakamoto J, et al., Seasonal changes in mortality rates from main causes of death in Japan (1970–1999). European Journal of Epidemiology. 2004;19(10): 905–913. doi: 10.1007/s10654-004-4695-8 15575348

12. Kynast-Wolf G, Preuß M, Sié A, Kouyaté B, Becher H. Seasonal patterns of cardiovascular disease mortality of adults in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Tropical Medicine & International Health. 2010;15(9): 1082–1089.

13. Cordioli E, Pizzi C, Martinelli M. Winter mortality in Emilia-Romagna, Italy. International Journal of Circumpolar Health. 2000;59(3–4): 164–169. 11209662

14. Feinstein CA. Seasonality of Deaths in the U.S. by Age and Cause. Demographic Research. 2002;17(6): 469–486.

15. Rau R, Doblhammer G. Seasonal mortality in Denmark: the role of sex and age. Demographic Research. 2003;19(9): 197–222.

16. Nicol JF, Raja IA, Allaudin A, Jamy GN. Climatic variations in comfortable temperatures: The Pakistan projects. Energy and buildings. 1999;30(3): 261–279.

17. www.emro.who.int/pak/ (Accesssed:07-01-2017)

18. Pakistan Population clock: http://countrymeters.info/en/Pakistan#population_2016, (Accessed: 07-01-2017)

19. Kottek M., Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B, Rubel F. World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2006;15(3): 259–263, (https://www.mindat.org/climate.php)

20. https://www.chitraltoday.net/chitral/

21. Findley DF, Monsell BC, Bell WR, Otto MC, Chen BC. New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal-adjustment program. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. 1998;16(2): 127–152.

22. http://www.spiderfinancial.com/support/documentation/numxl/users-guide/x-12-arima

23. https://weatherspark.com/y/107191/Average-Weather-in-Chitral-Pakistan-Year-Round

24. Fares A. Winter cardiovascular diseases phenomenon. North American Journal of Medical Sciences. 2013;5(4):266–279. doi: 10.4103/1947-2714.110430 23724401

25. Eccles R. An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Oto-laryngologica. 2002;122(2):183–191. doi: 10.1080/00016480252814207 11936911

26. Barnett AG, Sans S, Salomaa V, Kuulasmaa K, Dobson AJ, WHO Monica Project. The effect of temperature on systolic blood pressure. Blood Pressure Monitoring. 2007;12(3):195–203. doi: 10.1097/MBP.0b013e3280b083f4 17496471

27. Crombie DL, Fleming DM, Cross KW, Cross KW, Lancashire RJ. Concurrence of monthly variations of mortality related to underlying cause in Europe. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. 1995;49(4): 373–378.

28. Ishigami A, Hajat S, Kovats RS, Bisanti L, Rogononi M, Russo A, Paldy A. An ecological time-series study of heat-related mortality in three European cities. Environmental Health. 2008; 7(1):5.

29. Kunst AE, Looman CW, Mackenbach JP. Outdoor air temperature and mortality in The Netherlands: a time-series analysis. American Journal Epidemiology. 1993; 137(3): 331–341.

30. Rocklov J, Forsberg B. The effect of temperature on mortality in Stockholm 1998–2003: a study of lag structures and heatwave effects. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. 2008;36(5): 516–523. doi: 10.1177/1403494807088458 18567653

31. Lerchl A. Changes in the seasonality of mortality in Germany from 1946 to 1995: the role of temperature. International Journal of Biometeorology. 1998;42(2): 84–88. doi: 10.1007/s004840050089 9923200

32. Eng H, Mercer JB. Seasonal variations in mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases in Norway and Ireland. Journal of Cardiovascular Risk. 1998;5(2): 89–95. 9821061

33. Lloyd EL, McCormack C, McKeever M, Syme M. The effect of improving the thermal quality of cold housing on blood pressure and general health: a research note. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. 2008;62(9): 793–797.

34. Wilkinson P, Pattenden S, Armstrong B, Fletcher A, Kovats RS, Mangtani P, McMichael AJ. Vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly people in Britain: population based study. BMJ. 2004;329(7467): 647. doi: 10.1136/bmj.38167.589907.55 15315961

35. https://www.editage.com


Článok vyšiel v časopise

PLOS One


2019 Číslo 12
Najčítanejšie tento týždeň
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
Kurzy

Zvýšte si kvalifikáciu online z pohodlia domova

Aktuální možnosti diagnostiky a léčby litiáz
nový kurz
Autori: MUDr. Tomáš Ürge, PhD.

Všetky kurzy
Prihlásenie
Zabudnuté heslo

Zadajte e-mailovú adresu, s ktorou ste vytvárali účet. Budú Vám na ňu zasielané informácie k nastaveniu nového hesla.

Prihlásenie

Nemáte účet?  Registrujte sa

#ADS_BOTTOM_SCRIPTS#