Modeling environmental variability and network formation among pastoral nomadic households: Implications for the rise of the Mongol Empire
Autoři:
Daniel R. Shultz aff001; Andre Costopoulos aff002
Působiště autorů:
Department of Anthropology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
aff001; Department of Anthropology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
aff002
Vyšlo v časopise:
PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie:
Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223677
Souhrn
We use agent-based computer simulation to test the effect of environmental conditions (available biomass/carrying capacity and environmental risk) on the development of wealth inequality and patron-client herding networks in nomadic pastoral economies. Our results show that 1) wealth inequality reaches very high levels when carrying capacity is high and risk is low, and 2) patron-client contract herding networks increase in size and duration when carrying capacity is high and risk is low. We compare empirical data from the Mongol (1206–1368 CE) and Xiongnu (209 BCE– 48 CE) empires with simulation results to develop an explanatory mechanism for the apparent correlation between nomadic empire creation and positive environmental conditions. We argue that the internal dynamics of nomadic pastoral societies are sufficient to produce high degrees of inequality and hierarchical herding networks. Nomadic empires are more likely to form during key periods of increased biomass and decreased environmental risk.
Klíčová slova:
Simulation and modeling – Livestock – Agent-based modeling – Mongolia – Climate change – Archaeology – Carrying capacity – Historical archaeology
Zdroje
1. Huntington E. The pulse of Asia: a journey in Central Asia illustrating the geographic basis of history. Houghton, Mifflin; 1907.
2. Toynbee AJ. A Study of History. In 12 Vols. Oxford University Press; 1934.
3. Lattimore O. The geographical factor in Mongol history. Geogr J. 1938;91: 1–16. Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1787812
4. Jenkins G. A note on climatic cycles and the rise of Chinggis Khan. Cent Asiat J. 1974;18: 217–226. Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41927077
5. Pederson N, Hessl AE, Baatarbileg N, Anchukaitis KJ, Di Cosmo N. Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2014; doi: 10.1073/pnas.1318677111 24616521
6. Putnam AE, Putnam DE, Andreu-Hayles L, Cook ER, Palmer JG, Clark EH, et al. Little Ice Age wetting of interior Asian deserts and the rise of the Mongol Empire. Quat Sci Rev. 2016;131: 33–50. Available: https://experts.umn.edu/en/publications/little-ice-age-wetting-of-interior-asian-deserts-and-the-rise-of-
7. Su Y, Liu L, Fang XQ, Ma YN. The relationship between climate change and wars waged between nomadic and farming groups from the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty period. Clim Past. 2016;12: 137–150. Available: https://www.clim-past.net/12/137/2016/cp-12-137-2016.pdf
8. Wu W, Ge Q, Zheng J, Zhou Y, Hu Y. Possible role of climate change in the Mongol Westward Conquests. Quat Sci. 2009;29: 724–730.
9. Cribb R. Nomads in archaeology [Internet]. Cambridge University Press; 1991. Available: http://www.academia.edu/download/25115249/1997_Saidel_Review_of_Pastoral_books.pdf
10. Skrynnikova TD. Mongolian nomadic society of the empire period. In: Kradin NN, Korotayev AV, Bondarenko DM, de Munck V, Wason PK, editors. Alternatives of social evolution. Vladivostok: Far Eastern Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences; 2000. pp. 294–301. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dmitri_Bondarenko/publication/231182477_Alternatives_of_Social_Evolution/links/0912f5109fbe074474000000.pdf#page=457
11. Barfield T. The Shadow Empires: Imperial state formation along the Chinese-nomad frontier. Empires: Perspectives from Archaeology and History. 2001. doi: 10.2307/971916
12. Khazanov AM. Nomads and the outside world. [Internet]. University of Wisconsin Press; 1994. Available: https://www.cabdirect.org/?target=%2Fcabdirect%2Fabstract%2F19951802701
13. Houle J-L. Socially integrative facilities and the emergence of societal complexity on the Mongolian steppe. Soc Complex Prehist Eurasia Monum Met Mobil (Cambridge 2009). 2009; 358–377.
14. Makarewicz C. Xiongnu pastoral systems: Integrating economies of subsistence and scale. Xiongnu Archaeol Multidiscip Perspect First Steppe Emp Inn Asia, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität, Bonn. 2011; 181–192. Available: http://www.academia.edu/download/11806159/Makarewicz_150311_k00-1.pdf
15. Murphy DJ. Going on Otor: Disaster, mobility, and the political ecology of vulnerability in Uguumur. PhD thesis, University of Kentucky, Mongolia. 2011.
16. Borgerhoff Mulder M, Fazzio I, Irons W, McElreath RL, Bowles S, Bell A, et al. Pastoralism and wealth inequality: revisiting an old question. Curr Anthropol. 2010;51: 35–48. Available: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/648561
17. Cioffi-Revilla C, Rogers JD, Latek M. The MASON HouseholdsWorld model of pastoral nomad societies. Simulating Interacting Agents and Social Phenomena. Springer; 2010. pp. 193–204. Available: https://cs.gmu.edu/~eclab/projects/mason/publications/CioffiEtAl-MASONHouseholdsFinal.pdf
18. Cioffi-Revilla C, Honeychurch W, Rogers JD. MASON hierarchies: a long-range agent model of power, conflict, and environment in inner Asia. Complex Interact along Eurasian steppe Zo first Millenn AD empires, cities, nomads farmers, Bonn Contrib to Asian Archaeol Bonn Univ Press Bonn. 2015; 39–63. Available: https://socialcomplexity.gmu.edu/files/2017/03/Cioffi-Revilla-et-al.Hierarchies-2015.pdf
19. Rogers JD, Cioffi-Revilla C, Linford SJ. The Sustainability of wealth among nomads: an agent-based approach. Math Archaeol. 2015; 431ff. Available: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/867e/8b35332998f7cc16594cfe36f6b3f03fe736.pdf
20. Lake MW. Trends in Archaeological Simulation. J Archaeol Method Theory. 2014; doi: 10.1007/s10816-013-9188-1
21. Wilensky U. NetLogo. Evanston, IL.: Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University; 1999.
22. Goodland A, Sheehy D, Shine T. Mongolia Livestock Sector Study, Volume I–Synthesis Report. Sustain Dev Dep East Asia Pacific Reg World Bank, Washington, DC. 2009;
23. Endicott E. A history of land use in Mongolia: the thirteenth century to the present [Internet]. Springer; 2012. Available: https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=peDFAAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PP1&dq=endicott+2012+land+use+mongolia&ots=oSZz7ZeS4C&sig=Xku1z3kdAH7zqNpmMwZPyDZkddQ#v=onepage&q=endicott2012landusemongolia&f=false
24. Sneath D. The headless state: aristocratic orders, kinship society, & misrepresentations of nomadic Inner Asia [Internet]. Columbia University Press; 2007. Available: https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=jgLICgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT7&dq=sneath+2007+headless&ots=hmUi5mhydY&sig=aCoeoZAnV0lnUGJXa8abdgMC2-0#v=onepage&q=sneath2007headless&f=false
25. Fernandez-Gimenez ME, Allen-Diaz B. Testing a non-equilibrium model of rangeland vegetation dynamics in Mongolia. J Appl Ecol. 1999;36: 871–885. Available: https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1365-2664.1999.00447.x
26. Werger MJA, Van Staalduinen MA. Eurasian steppes. Ecological problems and livelihoods in a changing world [Internet]. Springer Science & Business Media; 2012. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sergey_Bazha/publication/270895195_Pastoral_Degradation_of_Steppe_Ecosystems_in_Central_Mongolia/links/54b8b0af0cf2c27adc48df02/Pastoral-Degradation-of-Steppe-Ecosystems-in-Central-Mongolia.pdf
27. Erdenesan E. Livestock Statitics in Mongolia. FAO Asia Pacific Comm Agric Stat Twenty-Sixth Sess. 2016; 15–19. Available: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ess/documents/apcas26/presentations/APCAS-16-6.3.5_-_Mongolia_-_Livestock_Statistics_in_Mongolia.pdf
28. Naess MW, Baardsen B-J. Why herd size matters–mitigating the effects of livestock crashes. PLoS One. 2013;8: e70161. Available: doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0070161 23936386
29. Mahul O, Skees J. Piloting Index-Based Livestock Insurance in Mongolia. AccessFinance; World Bank Gr. 2006;
30. Rao MP, Davi NK, D D’Arrigo R, Skees J, Nachin B, Leland C, et al. Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia. Environ Res Lett. 2015;10: 74012. Available: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074012
31. Barth F. Nomads of South Persia. The Basseri tribe of the Khamseh Confederacy. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget; 1961.
32. Lee J-S, Filatova T, Ligmann-Zielinska A, Hassani-Mahmooei B, Stonedahl F, Lorscheid I, et al. The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis. J Artif Soc Soc Simul. 2015;18. doi: 10.18564/jasss.2760
33. Di Cosmo N. Climate change and the rise of an empire. Inst Lett Inst Adv Stud. 2014;
34. Wright J. A Possible Archaeological Case of the Taxation of Medieval Eurasian Nomads. J Econ Soc Hist Orient. 2015;58: 267–292. Available: http://booksandjournals.brillonline.com/content/journals/10.1163/15685209-12341375
35. Allsen T. The rise of the Mongolian empire and Mongolian rule in north China. In: Twitchett DC, Franke H, editors. The Cambridge History of China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 1994. pp. 321–413. doi: 10.1017/CHOL9780521243315.006
36. Barfield TJ. The perilous frontier. Nomadic empires and China. 1989;221: 36–45. Available: http://www.bulgari-istoria-2010.com/booksRu/T_Bartfild_Opasnaja_granica.pdf
37. Pohl E, Mönkhbayar L, Ahrens B, Frank K, Linzen S, Osinska A, et al. Production sites in Karakorum and its environment: a new archaeological project in the Orkhon Valley, Mongolia. Silk Road. 2012;10: 49–65. Available: http://www.silk-road.com/newsletter/vol10/SilkRoad_10_2012_pohl.pdf
38. Munkuev NT. Novye materialy o polozhenii mongol’skikh aratov v XIII-XIV vv. In: Tikhvinskij SL, editor. Tataro-Mongoly v Azii I Europe Sbornik statei. 2nd ed. Moscow; 1977. pp. 408–446.
39. Endicott E. The Mongols and China: Cultural contacts and the changing nature of pastoral nomadism (twelfth to early twentieth centuries). Mongols, Turks, and Others: Eurasian nomads and the sedentary world. Leiden: Brill; 2004. pp. 461–481.
40. Shultz DR. Computer simulation of the effect of urban centres on the development of wealth inequality in pastoral nomadic society. Society for American Archaeology. Vancouver, Canada: Conference presentation (unpublished); 2017.
41. Ge Q, Hao Z, Zheng J, Shao X. Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Past. 2013;9: 1153. Available: https://www.clim-past.net/9/1153/2013/cp-9-1153-2013.pdf
42. Shao X, Xu Y, Yin Z-Y, Liang E, Zhu H, Wang S. Climatic implications of a 3585-year tree-ring width chronology from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Quat Sci Rev. 2010;29: 2111–2122. Available: http://www.academia.edu/download/39768423/Climatic_implications_of_a_3585-year_tre20151107-26285-83x9sk.pdf
43. Zheng J, Wang W-C, Ge Q, Man Z, Zhang P. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. 2006; Available: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zheng_Jingyun/publication/255644618_Precipitation_Variability_and_Extreme_Events_in_Eastern_China_during_the_Past_1500_Years/links/54d8cbd50cf24647581bfb19/Precipitation-Variability-and-Extreme-Events-in-Eastern-China-
44. Houle J-L. Climate amelioration and the rise of the Xiongnu Empire. Society for American Archaeology. Vancouver, Canada; 2017.
45. Chin TT. Defamiliarizing the Foreigner: Sima Qian’s Ethnography and Han-Xiongnu Marriage Diplomacy. Harv J Asiat Stud. 2010;70: 311–354.
46. Bold B-O. Socio-economic segmentation—" Khot-Ail" in nomadic livestock keeping of Mongolia. Nomad People. 1996; 69–86. Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/43123494
47. Honeychurch W. Alternative Complexities: The Archaeology of Pastoral Nomadic States. J Archaeol Res. 2014; doi: 10.1007/s10814-014-9073-9
48. Honeychurch W. Inner Asia and the spatial politics of empire: Archaeology, mobility, and culture contact. Inner Asia and the Spatial Politics of Empire: Archaeology, Mobility, and Culture Contact. 2015. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4939-1815-7
49. Ge Q, Zheng J, Fang X, Man Z, Zhang X, Zhang P, et al. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. The Holocene. 2003;13: 933–940. Available: http://www.igsnrr.ac.cn/xwzx/kydt/200710/W020090624623679418350.pdf
50. Ge Q-S, Zheng J-Y, Hao Z-X, Shao X-M, Wang W-C, Luterbacher J. Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37. Available: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009GL041281
51. Zhang DD, Jim CY, Lin GCS, He Y-Q, Wang JJ, Lee HF. Climatic change, wars and dynastic cycles in China over the last millennium. Clim Change. 2006;76: 459–477. Available: http://www.academia.edu/download/34524592/David_D.Zhang_CLIMATIC_CHANGE__WARS_AND_DYNASTIC_CYCLES_IN_CHINA_OVER_THE_LAST_MILLENNIUM.pdf
52. Kohler TA, Smith ME, Bogaard A, Feinman GM, Peterson CE, Betzenhauser A, et al. Greater post-Neolithic wealth disparities in Eurasia than in North America and Mesoamerica. Nature. 2017; doi: 10.1038/nature24646 29143817
Článok vyšiel v časopise
PLOS One
2019 Číslo 10
- Metamizol jako analgetikum první volby: kdy, pro koho, jak a proč?
- Nejasný stín na plicích – kazuistika
- Masturbační chování žen v ČR − dotazníková studie
- Těžké menstruační krvácení může značit poruchu krevní srážlivosti. Jaký management vyšetření a léčby je v takovém případě vhodný?
- Fixní kombinace paracetamol/kodein nabízí synergické analgetické účinky
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
- Correction: Low dose naltrexone: Effects on medication in rheumatoid and seropositive arthritis. A nationwide register-based controlled quasi-experimental before-after study
- Combining CDK4/6 inhibitors ribociclib and palbociclib with cytotoxic agents does not enhance cytotoxicity
- Experimentally validated simulation of coronary stents considering different dogboning ratios and asymmetric stent positioning
- Risk factors associated with IgA vasculitis with nephritis (Henoch–Schönlein purpura nephritis) progressing to unfavorable outcomes: A meta-analysis