Monte-Carlo value analysis of High-Throughput Satellites: Value levers, tradeoffs, and implications for operators and investors
Autoři:
Fan Geng aff001; David B. Gomez aff001; Yue Guan aff001; Joseph Homer Saleh aff001
Působiště autorů:
School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States of America
aff001
Vyšlo v časopise:
PLoS ONE 14(9)
Kategorie:
Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222133
Souhrn
High-Throughput Satellites (HTS) are a distinctive class of communication satellites that provide significantly more throughput per allocated bandwidth than traditional wide-beam communication satellites. They are the proverbial wave of creative disruption in the space industry and are poised to disrupt the communication market in significant ways. The objective of this work is to develop a decision-analytic framework for assessing the value of High-Throughput Satellites and to provide meaningful results of the value of such systems under realistic design, operational, and market conditions. We develop the cost and revenue models of HTS. To build the revenue model, we develop a hybrid data-driven and scenario-based load factor model that combines historical data based on financial records from current HTS operators with extrapolations based on best-, nominal-, and worst-case scenarios. We then integrate the cost and revenue models within a stochastic simulation environment and perform Monte-Carlo analysis of the net present value (NPV) of HTS. One important result is that a medium-sized HTS significantly outperforms a roughly equivalent traditional wide-beam satellite, even under the worst-case loading scenario. Another important result, here identified and quantified, is the tradeoff between the average revenue per user (ARPU) and average loading of the satellite and how it is mediated by the downlink speed provided to consumers. This result can be used in different ways, for example, by helping define the boundaries of what is competitively achievable in terms of ARPU and downlink speed offerings. The implications of these results are that they delineate the pathways to financial failure and the boundaries beyond which an HTS will be value-negative, or alternatively, the asymptotic minimum values for an HTS to be value-positive.
Klíčová slova:
Biology and life sciences – Physical sciences – Engineering and technology – Social sciences – Sociology – Communications – Social communication – Mathematics – Probability theory – Developmental biology – Economics – Finance – Telecommunications – Broadband – Economic models – Cost models – Random variables – Astronomical sciences – Space exploration – Spaceflight – Spacecraft – Life cycles
Zdroje
1. Saleh JH. Spacecraft Reliability and Multi-State Failures: A Statistical Approach. John Wiley & Sons; 2011.
2. Guan Y, Geng F, Saleh JH. Review of High-Throughput Satellites: market disruptions, affordability-throughput map, and the cost per bit/second decision tree. IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine. In Press: 2019. No. doi: 10.1109/MAES.2019.2916506
3. Amazon planning 3,236-satellite constellation for internet connectivity [Internet]. SpaceNews.com. [cited 2019 Apr 13]. Available from: https://spacenews.com/amazon-planning-3236-satellite-constellation-for-internet-connectivity/
4. Boeing constellation stalled, SpaceX constellation progressing [Internet]. SpaceNews.com. [cited 2019 Apr 13]. Available from: https://spacenews.com/boeing-constellation-stalled-spacex-constellation-progressing/
5. First Ariane 6 to carry 30 OneWeb satellites • Viasat seeking to raise $500 million • Hispasat trials Wi-Fi hotspots in Colombia [Internet]. SpaceNews.com. [cited 2019 Apr 13]. Available from: https://spacenews.com/first-up-satcom-first-ariane-6-to-carry-30-oneweb-satellites-%e2%80%a2-viasat-seeking-to-raise-500-million-%e2%80%a2-hispasat-trials-wi-fi-hotspots-in-colombia/
6. Iridium NEXT [Internet]. Iridium NEXT. 2016 [cited 2019 Apr 13]. Available from: https://www.iridiumnext.com/
7. Geng F, Saleh JH. Beyond cost tools: Spacecraft net present value and the hosted payload paradigm. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems. 51(4):3348–63.
8. Brathwaite J, Saleh JH. Bayesian framework for assessing the value of scientific space systems: value of information approach with application to Earth science spacecraft. Acta Astronautica. 2013;84:24–35.
9. Saleh JH. Analyses for Durability and System Design Lifetime: A Multidisciplinary Approach. Cambridge University Press. 2008;
10. Geng F, Dubos GF, Saleh JH. Spacecraft Obsolescence: Modeling, Value Analysis, and Implications for Design and Acquisition. In Big Sky, MT.; 2016.
11. Saleh JH, Torres-Padilla JP, Morgan E, Sperber R. Utilization Rates of Geostationary Communication Satellites: Models for loading dynamics. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets. 2006;43(4):903–9.
12. Damodaran A. Return on Capital (ROC), Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Return on Equity (ROE): Measurement and Implications [Internet]. ssrn.com. [cited 2019 Apr 15]. Available from: www.ssrn.com/abstract=1105499
13. Seradata, Online Database, 2016 [cited 2017 Oct 19], Available from: http://seradata.com/products/spacetrak
14. Anstett O. Internet broadband: a new source of growth [Internet]. eutelsat.com. 2015 [cited 2017 Oct 19]. Available from: www.eutelsat.com/files/contributed/investors/-pdf/Capital-Markets-Day-2015/Internet%20broadband_a_new%20_source_of_growth.pdf.
15. Amos J. Ka-Sat net dedicated spacecraft lifts off [Internet]. BBC News. [cited 2010 Dec 26]. Available from: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-12065466
16. Viasat SEC 10-k fillings, Online Database, 2017 [cited 2017 Oct 19], Available from: http://investors.viasat.com/sec.cfm?view=all
17. Hohwald H, Frias-Martinez E, Oliver N. User Modeling for Telecommunication Applications: Experiences andPractical Implications. Springer-Verlag. 2010;
18. Luo C, Zeng J, Yuan M, Dai W, Yang Q. Telco User Activity Level Prediction with Massive Broadband Data. ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology. 2016;7(4):63:1–63:30.
19. Anselmo J, Shay LA. Meet The World’s Most Advanced Telecom Satellite [Internet]. AviationWeek.com. 2017 [cited 2017 Oct 19]. Available from: https://aviationweek.com/connected-aerospace/meet-world-s-most-advanced-telecom-satellite
20. Henry C. EchoStar buys Jupiter-3 “ultra high-density satellite" from SSL [Internet]. SpaceNews.com. 2017 [cited 2017 Oct 19]. Available from: http://spacenews.com/echostar-buys-jupiter-3-ultra-high-density-satellite-from-ssl/
Článok vyšiel v časopise
PLOS One
2019 Číslo 9
- Metamizol jako analgetikum první volby: kdy, pro koho, jak a proč?
- Nejasný stín na plicích – kazuistika
- Masturbační chování žen v ČR − dotazníková studie
- Těžké menstruační krvácení může značit poruchu krevní srážlivosti. Jaký management vyšetření a léčby je v takovém případě vhodný?
- Fixní kombinace paracetamol/kodein nabízí synergické analgetické účinky
Najčítanejšie v tomto čísle
- Graviola (Annona muricata) attenuates behavioural alterations and testicular oxidative stress induced by streptozotocin in diabetic rats
- CH(II), a cerebroprotein hydrolysate, exhibits potential neuro-protective effect on Alzheimer’s disease
- Comparison between Aptima Assays (Hologic) and the Allplex STI Essential Assay (Seegene) for the diagnosis of Sexually transmitted infections
- Assessment of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity using CareStart G6PD rapid diagnostic test and associated genetic variants in Plasmodium vivax malaria endemic setting in Mauritania