Projecting burden of hypertension and its management in Turkey, 2015-2030

English version

Autoři: Ayda Aysun Yurekli ^aff001; Nazmi Bilir ^aff002; Muhammad Jami Husain ^aff003
Působiště autorů: Visiting Senior Research Scientist at UIC Illinois, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America ^aff001; Institute of Public Health, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey ^aff002; Global Noncommunicable Diseases Branch, Division of Global Health Protection, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America ^aff003
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 14(9)
Kategorie: Research Article
prolekare.web.journal.doi_sk: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0221556

Souhrn

Background

In Turkey, hypertension was responsible for 13% of total deaths in 2015. We apply existing research finding regarding the impact of a population-wide reduction in sodium consumption on the decrease of the hypertension prevalence rate among 15+ years population and the gender-age specific reduction in total death rates among 30+ years population, and compare hypertension burden, averted deaths, costs and benefits between two scenarios.

Methods

The first scenario (i.e. status quo) assumes constant hypertension prevalence rate and the death rates between 2015 and 2030. Based on the Framingham Heart Study and INTERSALT Study findings on the impact of salt-reduction strategies on hypertension prevalence rate, the second scenario (Scenario II) assumes a 17% reduction in the prevalence of hypertension in Turkey in 2030, from its 2015 prevalence level. We project hypertension attributable disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2030, monetize DALYs using GDP (and income) per capita, and compare the projected economic benefits of DALYs averted and the additional costs associated with the increases in hypertension treatment through antihypertensive medications and physician consultations.

Results

The estimated benefits of reducing the economic burden of hypertension deaths outweigh the cost of providing hypertension treatment. A decrease in hypertension prevalence by 17%, attributable to population-wide reduction in salt consumption, is projected to avert 24.3 thousand deaths in 2030. We projected that, compared to status quo, 392 thousand DALYs will be averted in Scenario II in 2030. The economic benefits of reduction in potential hypertension deaths are estimated to be 6.7 to 8.6 folds higher than the additional cost of hypertension treatment.

Conclusion

Population-wide hypertension prevention and management is a win-win situation for public health and the Turkish health care system as the economic benefits of reducing deaths and disabilities associated with hypertension outweigh the costs significantly.

Klíčová slova:

Biology and life sciences – Social sciences – People and places – Population groupings – Population biology – Geographical locations – Europe – Medicine and health sciences – Population metrics – Death rates – Economics – Pharmacology – Drugs – Age groups – Vascular medicine – Asia – Blood pressure – Hypertension – Antihypertensives – Epidemiology – Medical risk factors – Turkey (country)

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